УКРОПИ

Estonian President Urges Unity Among Allies Against Russia

Estonia’s president called for continued unity among democratic allies in the face of Russian aggression on Wednesday and expressed a wish for even greater U.S. involvement in the Baltics.

Kersti Kaljulaid, on her second visit to the United States in less than a year, told an audience at the Brookings Institution that membership in the European Union and NATO have served to defend and enhance her country’s sovereignty.

With only 1.2 million people and located on the Baltic Sea near Russia, the former Soviet republic has been especially concerned about growing Russian assertiveness, particularly since its annexation of the Ukrainian region of Crimea and its military support for two breakaway regions in Georgia.

‘Direct involvement in Baltics’

The United States has responded with military exercises along NATO’s borders with Russia and a troop presence in Poland, actions acknowledged by Kaljulaid. While “America’s contribution to enhanced forward presence in Poland is appreciated, we would love to see more U.S. direct involvement in the Baltics as well,” she said.

Rachel Ellehuus, deputy director and senior fellow with the Europe Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said Estonia and its Baltic neighbors have served as model members of NATO since being admitted to the defense alliance in 2004, but cannot defend themselves without help.

“Due to their small size, they need our and NATO’s help in procuring big-ticket capabilities,” Ellehuus said in an interview.

Quick US response appreciated

The former Pentagon official noted that the United States was the first country to send forces to the Baltics following Russia’s takeover of Crimea.

She said she would like to see “a persistent rotational presence of U.S. forces in the Baltics and possibly funding in the appropriations bill to support regional capability development in areas such as air and maritime surveillance.”

In an age of increasing attention devoted to big-power politics and competition, it is understood that small states like the Baltic countries cannot win a war against a power like Russia, but they can raise the cost of war for their potential adversaries.

“Their strategy is to increase resilience and hold the line until reinforcements, i.e., NATO, regional partners, can come to their aid,” said Ellehuus. She quoted her former boss at the Pentagon, Secretary of Defense James Mattis, saying that “even the bear knows to avoid the porcupine.”

In Ellehuus’s words: The Baltics can take steps “to make themselves as indigestible as possible,” even though they don’t have the capacity to win an all-out war against their giant neighbor to the east.

‘Follow-up plan’

In her speech on Wednesday, Kaljulaid said her country was prepared to “hold the line” against an initial assault but that the “follow-on plan” involving sufficient allied forces was not yet in place.

Her visit to Washington comes at a time when the Pentagon made it clear in the latest national defense budget proposal that it is focused on countering rising capacities from both Russia and China and ensuring that potential adversaries know there is “no path to victory” if they choose to fight the United States.
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‘Fort Trump’ One Step Closer to Becoming Polish Reality

A proposed permanent U.S. military base in Poland, nicknamed “Fort Trump,” is one step closer to becoming a reality. 

Negotiations on establishing the base are “ongoing this very week,” Kathryn Wheelbarger, the acting assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, told the House Armed Services Committee on Wednesday. 

Wheelbarger’s comments came as John Rood, the undersecretary of defense for policy, met with his Polish counterpart to work out details of what Rood called a “generous offer” from Poland, according to defense officials.  

Warsaw has offered to contribute at least $2 billion to place permanent U.S. forces and assets in Poland, a NATO ally, in an attempt to deter any possible Russian aggression. NATO has expanded its presence near Russia’s borders to reassure its eastern members, a buildup Russia has described as a threat to its security. 

“We’ve come forward with, we think, a very serious, robust offer, and we’re working out some of the technicalities this very week,” Wheelbarger said. “We hope to have a very solid foundation to work from coming out of this meeting today.” 

She added that it would most likely take six months to a year for any base agreement to be finalized. 

Permanent base seen as ‘helpful’

The U.S. military would not need to start budgeting for the base for at least two or three years, according to Army Gen. Curtis “Mike” Scaparrotti, the head of U.S. European Command. 

Asked about making rotational U.S. forces permanent in Poland, Scaparrotti told lawmakers he’s “perfectly content with the large forces that we are rotating,” but a more permanent base would be “helpful.” 

Negotiations on the proposed base with Warsaw come amid reports that the Trump administration is considering a plan in which wealthy nations such as Germany, Japan and South Korea would be required to pay the full cost of U.S. soldiers deployed on their territory, plus 50 percent more for the privilege of American defense. 

Wheelbarger denied that the “cost plus 50” idea was being discussed for European allies, telling lawmakers, “My understanding is that rhetoric came from conversations from the Pacific; it’s not a conversation we’ve had in my portfolio at all.”
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British Lawmakers Reject No-Deal Brexit in Any Circumstance

British lawmakers on Wednesday overwhelmingly rejected leaving the European Union without a deal, paving the way for a vote to delay Brexit to seek a way out of Britain’s worst political crisis in generations.

Lawmakers voted by 312 to 308 in favor of a cross-party motion that ruled out a potentially disorderly ‘no-deal’ Brexit under any circumstances.

It went further than the government’s own planned motion, which noted that parliament did not want to leave without a deal on March 29 and that the default legal position was to leave without a deal unless one was ratified by parliament.

While the approved motion has no legal force and ultimately may not prevent a no-deal exit after a possible delay, it carries considerable political force.

After two-and-a-half years of negotiations and two failed attempts to pass a Brexit deal proposed by May, the vote against a no-deal exit still leaves undecided how, when and on what terms Britain will leave the club it joined in 1973.

After lawmakers crushed her deal for a second time on Tuesday, May said it was still the best option for leaving in an orderly fashion.

Ahead of Wednesday’s vote, the pound headed for its biggest daily rise in 2019 as investors bet on a vote against a no-deal Brexit. It rose again on the result of the vote.

As the United Kingdom’s three-year Brexit crisis spins towards its finale, diplomats and investors see four main options: a delay, May’s deal passing at the last minute, an accidental no-deal exit or another referendum. Delay until when?

If Britain does seek a delay, it will require the agreement of all the bloc’s other 27 members.

The EU would prefer only a short extension, with the deadline of EU-wide parliamentary elections due May 24-26, although it is unclear that this would be long enough to solve the impasse in London.

EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said the bloc would need to know why Britain wanted to extend talks and that it was up to London to find a way out of the deadlock. The EU said there could be no more negotiations on the divorce terms.

As Brexit uncertainty spills into financial markets across the world, investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are offering different probabilities on the outcomes.

“We continue to see a 55 percent chance that a close variant of the prime minister’s Brexit deal is eventually ratified, after a three-month extension of Article 50,” Goldman said. It gave a reversal of Brexit a 35 percent probability and a no-deal Brexit 10 percent.

Britons voted by 52-48 percent in 2016 to leave the bloc, a decision that has split the main political parties and exposed deep rifts in British society.

May’s deal covers such things as citizens’ rights, the status of the Irish border and Britain’s divorce bill from the EU. It takes Britain out of the EU single market and customs union, common fisheries and farm policies and the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. It also offers a status-quo transition period in which to negotiate trade arrangements.

Under a no-deal exit, there would be no transition period to soften the disruption to trade and regulations. Britain would quit the EU’s 500 million-strong single market and customs union and fall back on World Trade Organisation rules, which could mean tariffs on many imports and exports.
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With Brexit Deal Down, UK Lawmakers Have 2 More Choices

Now that British lawmakers overwhelmingly rejected Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit divorce deal for a second time, the country’s planned March 29 departure from the bloc is an open question. 

Lawmakers now have two starkly different choices: no deal or delay. 

A look at what might happen in the days ahead:

Destination no-deal 

The House of Commons voted 391-242 against May’s EU withdrawal agreement Tuesday, snubbing changes she secured from the bloc the night before to allay concerns about the deal’s Irish border provisions. Lawmakers voted down the deal in January by an even bigger margin.

After the tally, May said Parliament would  vote Wednesday on whether to abandon efforts to secure an agreement and to leave the EU as planned in a little more than two weeks without a deal.

A phalanx of pro-Brexit politicians supports that idea. They argue it would free the U.K. from  EU rules and red tape, allowing the country to forge an independent global trade policy.

But economists and businesses fear a so-called “no-deal Brexit” would hammer the economy as tariffs and other trade barriers go up between Britain and the EU, its biggest trading partner.

In the short term, there could be gridlock at British ports and shortages of fresh produce. In the long run, the government says a no-deal scenario would leave the economy 6 percent to 9 percent smaller over 15 years than remaining in the EU.

Last month, Parliament passed a non-binding amendment ruling out a “no-deal” Brexit, and it is unlikely they will support it now. May said lawmakers would be free to follow their consciences rather than party lines when they consider the question Wednesday.

Delay, delay, delay

If lawmakers give leaving the EU without an agreement a thumbs down, they have one choice left: seeking more time. A third vote scheduled for Thursday is on asking the EU to delay Brexit day by up to three months.

This option is likely to prove popular, since politicians on both sides of the Brexit debate fear time is running out to secure an orderly withdrawal by March 29.

Extending the timeframe for Brexit would require approval from all 27 remaining EU member countries. They have an opportunity to grand such a request at a March 21-22 summit in Brussels. But the rest of the EU is reluctant to postpone Brexit beyond the late May elections for the EU’s legislature, the European Parliament.

The EU said Tuesday that Britain needs to provide “a credible justification” for any delay.

Crisis deferred 

Whatever Parliament decides, it will not end Britain’s Brexit crisis. Both lawmakers and the public remain split between backers of a clean break from the EU and those who favor continuing a close relationship through a post-Brexit trade deal or by reversing the June 2016 decision to leave.

May is unwilling to abandon her hard-won Brexit agreement and might try to put it to Parliament a third time, although the latest margin of defeat makes that tricky.

Some lawmakers want her to have Parliament consider different forms of Brexit to see if there is a majority for any course of action.

Some think the only way forward is a snap election that could rearrange the forces in Parliament and break the political deadlock. May has ruled that out, but could come to see it as her only option.

And anti-Brexit campaigners haven’t abandoned efforts to secure a new referendum on whether to remain in the EU. The government opposes the idea, which at the moment also lacks majority support in Parliament.

However, the political calculus could change if the paralysis drags on. The opposition Labour Party has said it would support a second referendum if other options were exhausted.

It all means more twists are coming in the Brexit drama.

“No one really believes this is the last chance saloon,” said Oliver Patel, a research associate at the European Institute at University College London.

 
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British Parliament Rejects May’s Latest Brexit Plan to Split from EU

British lawmakers on Tuesday overwhelmingly rejected Prime Minister Theresa May’s latest effort to set the terms of Britain’s Brexit deal to split from the European Union on March 29.

The House of Commons voted 391-242 against May’s plan, setting up a Wednesday vote on whether Britain should quit the 28-nation EU bloc without agreeing on any of the details of its departure. And if that fails, a Thursday vote on whether to ask the EU for more time to negotiate an agreement.

May implored lawmakers to adopt the deal she negotiated Monday with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker for “legally binding changes” to ensure that the border between EU member Ireland and Britain’s Northern Ireland would remain open after Brexit.

But the outcome mirrored a January vote on an earlier plan, which May lost even more decisively, by 230 votes.

After losing again, May, the Conservative Party leader, told the House of Commons, “I continue to believe the best and only way” to quit the EU is “in an orderly way.”

She said the next options “are unenviable choices” — leaving without a deal, or asking for more time to negotiate after already spending months to reach terms of the now-defeated pacts.

Jeremy Corbyn, leader of Britain’s main opposition Labor Party, told the parliamentarians, “The government has now been defeated by an enormous majority. The prime minister has run down the clock, and the clock has run out on her.” He called for a new election.

Before Tuesday’s vote, May told lawmakers, “The danger for those of us who want to deliver, to have faith in the British public and deliver on their vote for Brexit, is that if this vote is not passed tonight, if this deal is not passed, then Brexit could be lost.”

Key opponents to her plan quickly emerged.

Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party said May had only made “limited” progress in negotiating the new terms, and said its 10 members in parliament would vote against her plan.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the EU had made “clear, far-reaching proposals” to address Britain’s concerns about the deal. But she deflected a question about whether she was willing to delay the British exit from the EU if British lawmakers could not agree on a plan.

The original deal, rejected two months ago, called for a backstop agreement that would keep Britain and the EU in a customs union until they agree on a new trade agreement. Opponents in Britain’s parliament said they were concerned about being locked into EU rules instead of being able to gain full control of trade policies.

May said the new terms agreed to Monday would ensure the backstop deal is not a permanent part of Britain’s exit from the EU.

The Labor Party rejected the plan, saying it still does not go far enough to allay its concerns.

Juncker warned that Britain is running out of options.

“It is this deal, or Brexit might not happen at all,” he said.
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Turkish-Russian Military Cooperation Deepens Amid US-Turkish Tensions

Russian and Turkish military cooperation is deepening as Ankara’s relationship with Washington deteriorates. Recent joint naval exercises between Russia and Turkey, and increasing military cooperation in Syria, come as NATO allies question Turkey’s allegiance to the Western defense alliance.

A joint naval drill last Friday was part of a broader Turkish national military exercise. While the drills involved only a few ships, analysts have described its political implications as far more significant.

“The realization of the Russian-Turkish common military exercises is a message both for the West and for the region of the Middle East that two sides cooperate,” said Zaur Gasimov, an Istanbul-based analyst for the Max Weber Foundation.

The choice of the Black Sea for the joint exercise also is heavy on political symbolism, given that it is a focal point of tensions between NATO and Russian forces, and it sends a message that likely will not be lost on Turkey’s NATO members, other analysts say.

“This is another confirmation that Turkey is the odd man in the room when it comes to the NATO membership; nearly all people think Turkey is only a member on paper,” said political scientist Cengiz Aktar, adding, “And how successful Moscow has been to cut Turkey from NATO.”

“This is a trend thus far, from being temporary or tactical; this is a long-term strategy of Russia,” added Aktar.

Moscow has been quick to exploit bilateral tensions between Ankara and Washington over myriad differences.

“The unprecedented amelioration of Turkish-Russian cooperation at present should be seen in the context of the unprecedented aggravation of the ties between Ankara and Washington,” Gasimov said.

S-400 missiles

Washington’s backing of Syrian YPG Kurdish forces in the fight against Islamic State has driven bilateral ties between the U.S. and Turkey, a NATO ally, to the breaking point. Ankara has designated the YPG as terrorists linked to the PKK, which has been waging a decades-long insurgency inside Turkey.

Moscow’s sale of its S-400 missiles to Ankara has further ratcheted up Turkish-U.S. tensions. Washington is warning of sanctions if the purchase is completed, saying the weapons threaten NATO defense systems.

Russians believe that Turkey will buy the S-400 and, for Moscow, the deal has a political impact, Gasimov said. “The entire process of sell and buy of S-400 poisoned the shaky ties between Ankara and Washington.”

Syria

While U.S.-Turkish divisions deepen, Ankara and Moscow are increasing cooperation in Syria. Russia and Turkey back rival sides in the civil war but increasingly are working together along with Iran to end the conflict, under the auspices of the so-called “Astana Process.”

This month saw Turkish and Russian forces begin coordinating military patrols in the last Syrian rebel enclave of Idlib. The patrols are part of a more comprehensive agreement hammered out between the Russian and Turkish presidents, Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

The agreement averted a Syrian regime offensive into the province of Idlib which would have likely triggered a refugee exodus into neighboring Turkey.

However, analysts are questioning the sustainability of Turkish-Russian cooperation in Idlib. “Russians sooner or later will clear Idlib, which is filled with tens of thousands of terrorists,” Aktar said, “and this, the first and foremost point of disagreement between Ankara and Moscow.”

The Turkish-Russian patrols in Idlib came in response to Moscow voicing frustration with Ankara over what Moscow claimed was the failure by Turkey’s armed forces to rein in radical groups in Idlib.

Strategies

For now, however, it appears Moscow’s priority is deepening cooperation with Ankara. Local Turkish media reported Tuesday that Russian and Turkish forces are planning joint patrols in Tel Rifaat, an area controlled by the YPG Kurdish militia. The patrols aim to reduce tensions with the YPG and Turkish troops, which continually skirmish.

Moscow, like Washington, has developed a good relationship with the YPG. The PYD, the political wing of the YPG, has offices in Moscow. Russia, unlike Turkey’s Western allies, has not designated the PKK a terrorist organization. Ankara voices little public criticism of Moscow’s PKK stance, while at the same time castigating its European and American allies for not cracking down enough on the PKK, even though they do categorize the militants as terrorists.

Turkey’s growing alienation from its traditional Western allies seems set to continue given Ankara’s deepening ties with Moscow, and analysts warn of inescapable historical diplomatic realities.

“Historically speaking, since Peter the Great [Russian 18th century leader), Turks and Russians never had any joint strategic objective, never, this is for 300 years,” Aktar said. “Also, it’s not possible now that they start to kiss each other and have joint strategic objectives; these countries will always be regional rivals. Unfortunately, Ankara thinks they can play Russian and Americans against each other; it won’t work.”
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US Warns Germany a Huawei Deal Could Hurt Intelligence Sharing

The United States on Monday warned Germany about future “information sharing” if it uses “untrusted vendors” in its 5G telecom infrastructure amid debate over whether Chinese IT giant Huawei is an espionage risk.

The Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. Ambassador Richard Grenell sent a letter to German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier on Friday warning that in such a case the US could scale down intelligence and other information exchanges.

A U.S. Embassy spokesperson told AFP on Monday it would not comment on diplomatic communications, but added that its position on 5G network security was well known.

“To the extent there are untrusted vendors in the networks of an ally, that could raise future questions about the integrity and confidentiality of sensitive communications within that country, as well as between that country and its allies,” the spokesperson said.

“This could in the future jeopardize nimble cooperation and some sharing of information. We are engaging intensively with our allies on how to secure our telecommunications networks to ensure continued interoperability.”

German minister Altmaier confirmed he had received the letter, but told AFP he could not comment on its contents, adding: “We will respond quickly”.

Germany, like other EU countries, has relied heavily on US intelligence on terror and other threats provided by the National Security Agency, the Central Intelligence Agency and other spy services.

The US and several other Western nations, fearful of the security risks posed by the company closely tied to the Chinese government, have shut Huawei out of tenders for the development of the newest 5G infrastructure.

The Chinese telecoms behemoth has strenuously denied the espionage allegations.

Germany, anxious to not get sucked into the maelstrom of an ongoing U.S.-China spat over a multitude of issues including trade, has taken a cautious stance on the issue.

Chancellor Angela Merkel has said it was necessary to talk to Beijing “to make sure that the company does not simply give up all data that is used to the Chinese state, but that there are safeguards”.

Some measures in the works include adding a non-spying clause, a requirement to publish code sources used in the infrastructures as well as allowing independent laboratories to carry out tests on the components used.

Huawei has quietly become a leading supplier of the backbone equipment for mobile networks, particularly in developing markets thanks to cheaper prices.

Germany, although it is Europe’s leading economy, has seen its mobile infrastructure lag behind, with most Germans having access only to 3G.

The 5G network is meant to be 100 times more rapid than 4G, and is viewed as the next major step in the digital revolution that makes data transfers almost instantaneous.

 
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British Parliament to Vote Again on Brexit Deal

Britain’s parliament is holding the first of what could be three days of votes Tuesday in order to decide how to proceed with its divorce from the European Union.

Members are voting Tuesday on Prime Minister Theresa May’s latest version of her plan, based on an agreement her government reached with the EU last year.

It initially got little support when first put to a vote, but May made a last-ditch trip to Strasbourg on Monday to secure altered terms in talks with EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker that she hopes will win over her opponents.

May said Juncker announced “legally binding changes” that in part address the longtime sticking point involving what to do with the border between Britain’s Northern Ireland and EU member Ireland.

The original deal calls for a so-called backstop agreement that keeps Britain and the EU in a customs union until they agree on a new trade agreement. Opponents in Britain’s parliament are concerned about being locked into EU rules instead of being able to gain full control of trade policies.

May said the new terms agreed to Monday would ensure the backstop deal is not a permanent part of Britain’s exit from the EU.

The opposition Labour Party rejected the plan, saying it still does not go far enough to allay their concerns.

Juncker warned that Britain is running out of options for Brexit, which is set to take place March 29.

“It is this deal or Brexit might not happen at all,” he said.

If the Brexit agreement fails the Tuesday vote, another would be held on Wednesday to see if lawmakers approve of exiting the EU at the end of the month with no terms in place. If that fails too, a third vote would come Thursday on whether to ask the EU for more time.
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As China Prevails, France’s Macron Shuffles His Cards in Djibouti

French President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday sought to reassert the importance of France in its former colony Djibouti with Paris increasingly fearing China’s muscular role in Africa as it expands economic and military influence across the continent.

Djibouti, strategically located at the southern entrance to the Red Sea on the route to the Suez Canal, hosts France’s largest naval base on the continent and is home to some 1,400 personnel used to train African troops as well as to monitor the Horn of Africa and Yemen.

While it was seen as a vital outpost in the past, French administrations have disregarded it in recent years with Macron only the second French leader to visit the East African country in the last 20 years.

“France considered Djibouti for too long to be a territory that was won,” said a senior French diplomat based in the region. “But now the competition from China is fierce.”

Those comments echoed President Ismail Omar Guelleh’s public criticism in 2015 accusing France – from which it gained independence in 1977 – of abandoning Djibouti and investing very little.

Djibouti also hosts a U.S. military base used as a launch pad for operations in Yemen and Somalia, but in 2013, China opened its largest overseas military base in the country rivaling Paris and Washington directly.

In recent years, Beijing has provided economic aid, developed industrial production in the country and invested massively in high-profile public infrastructure projects, including restoring a French-made railway from 1917 linking Djibouti to Ethiopia’s capital Addis Ababa.

With a population of less than a million, it also handles 95 percent of the goods imported by Ethiopia, its landlocked neighbor with 100 million people.

“Strategically we need to strengthen the French presence threefold: economically, culturally and militarily,” Marielle de Sarnez, the head of France’s parliamentary foreign affairs committee, said after being dispatched by Macron last May. “It’s urgent. Otherwise we will lose ground.”

The unexpected peace accord between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2018 has also reshuffled the cards for Djibouti.

The lifting of the United Nations Security Council’s arms embargo on Eritrea and other sanctions in November sparked Djibouti’s ire. It accuses Eritrea of occupying part of its territory and holding 13 Djiboutian soldiers.

French officials say they have raised this at the U.N. and see it as a way for Paris to assert its diplomatic influence in the region.

“What the Djiboutian authorities are expecting from us is that we remain active so that Djibouti fully has its place in the recomposition of the region,” a French presidential source said.
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Russian Defense Ministry Boasts About Revived Military Power

The Russian military has commissioned more than 1,000 new aircraft and thousands of tanks in the past few years in a massive modernization effort amid tensions with the West, the nation’s defense minister said Monday.

Sergei Shoigu boasted of the military’s achievements in his six years on the job, saying in a speech to lawmakers that the armed forces have turned into a highly mobile force capable of projecting power to distant areas.

Shoigu noted that the military received more than 1,000 warplanes and combat helicopters and over 3,700 tanks in 2012-2018. He added that the armed forces have received 109 ground-based intercontinental ballistic missiles and 108 submarine-launched ICBMs and formed 10 brigades armed with state-of-the-art short-range Iskander missiles.

Russia-West ties have plunged to their lowest levels since the Cold War times over Russia’s actions in Ukraine, the war in Syria and the allegations of Moscow’s meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Amid the tensions, NATO has expanded its presence near Russia’s borders to reassure its eastern members, a buildup Russia has described as a threat to its security.

Relations between Moscow and Washington also frayed over the U.S. decision to withdraw from the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty over alleged Russian violations. The Kremlin has denied any violations and responded by also suspending its obligations under the INF treaty.

Shoigu said that the campaign in Syria that Russia has waged since 2015 showcases its military might and allowed the military to test its new weapons in combat, including shipborne and air-launched long-range cruise missiles.

He noted that the military also has seen a quick expansion in the number of drones, laser-guided artillery projectiles and other precision weapons.

The defense minister emphasized that the 1-million-strong military has nearly 400,000 professional enlisted personnel and non-commissioned officers, a major shift for the armed forces that in the recent past relied exclusively on the draft.

Shoigu said that the increase in the number of contract soldiers has allowed the military to form 136 battalions consisting entirely of professional personnel. Such battalion tactical groups are the core tactical units, allowing the armed forces to quickly deploy to any area.

He said that every brigade or regiment in the Russian army now has two battalions of professional soldiers and one made up of draftees. The minister added that the draftees aren’t sent into combat.

Battalion tactical groups played a key role during Russia’s 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula. Ukraine and the West also has accused Russia of sending its troops to support a separatist insurgency in eastern Ukraine — claims Moscow has denied.

Shoigu mentioned the military’s effort to beef up its presence in Crimea. He also noted that the armed forces have expanded their foothold in the Arctic, deploying 475 facilities there.
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Brexit: Leap Into Dark or More Delay?

For Britain, leaving the EU with a transition deal will be wrenching enough, a seismic realignment that will tear apart business, economic, security, legal, cultural and political ties that have deepened over half-a-century, enmeshing Britain in Europe and Europe in Britain.

But crashing out without a withdrawal agreement will be even more painful — a real leap into the dark.

With less than three weeks to go before the country’s March 29 Brexit deadline it still remains unclear whether the country will leave the bloc with a withdrawal deal or crash out without one, exiting even more chaotically and harmfully.

Or the British parliament could just delay the whole thing. Monday night Theresa May flew to Strasbourg for last-minute talks with EU negotiators.

For the three million continental Europeans living in Britain and a million-and-half Britons living in other EU member states these days are nail-biting. They fear for their jobs, health care and even their homes with their residency rights up in the air. EU citizens in Britain are being required to re-apply for residency — no matter if they’ve been settled in Britain for decades. The government says they’ll be able to remain, but nothing is legally guaranteed.

Danish-born Tove MacDonald is dismayed about having to re-apply to stay in a country she’s called home for more than half a century. The 87-year-old, who’s married to a Scot and has raised two children, posted on the internet, “it makes me feel very sad because this has been my home for all these years and I feel more Scottish than Danish.”

Belgian-born Corine Byron-Danuser says before the Brexit referendum she was “probably one of the proudest non-British Brits you could possibly imagine.” The 46-year-old mother-of-one has been here for 15 years, and during her marriage to a British serviceman she sang gustily “God Save the Queen” with the other military wives.

But her “sense of belonging” has been shaken because of a rise in nativism, she told VOA. “It is really hard because the place you called home no longer is. You don’t actually know any more where home is,” she explained. She describes a recent date with a guy she thought “lovely” at first, until Brexit was broached. “Their followed a tirade against foreigners,” she says. There was no second date.

Brexit has prompted a Brexodus with tens of thousands of EU nationals leaving. Net migration from the EU to the UK slumped in 2018 to a six-year low, according to government data, with only a 57,000 net increase. For many Brexiters that’s cause for celebration, but not for farmers, or construction and hospitality businesses, nor for the bosses of Britain’s under-staffed National Health Service.

On Tuesday, Britain’s deadlocked House of Commons is due to vote for a second time on a transition deal Prime Minister Theresa May agreed to with the EU after more than two years of ill-tempered wrangling. But as of Monday, there was fifty-fifty chance she would postpone the vote. In January parliament rejected the deal in the biggest rebuff ever suffered by a British prime minister.

Whenever she calls for a vote, she seems on course for another trouncing, say lawmakers, with hardline Brexiters and pro-EU Remainers opposed.

What happens then is anyone’s guess. A request for a Brexit postponement is the most likely scenario, but no one is ruling Britain crashing out of the EU without any transition deal. In a rare public admission of impotence, May has said, “no one knows what will happen.”

The uncertainty is infuriating business owners, depressing economic growth and fueling anxiety. Firms have put investment on hold, adopting a wait-and-see approach. That’s lowered productivity rates. Businesses have been warning for months about both the repercussions of a no-deal Brexit as well the damage being wrought by just not knowing how or when or if the country will break away.

Companies have been stockpiling everything they can — from airplanes to car parts — but have been running out of storage space. “We are facing a ‘perfect storm’ in the warehousing and logistics industry,” the UK Warehousing Association has warned in a statement.

Fear of a no-deal Brexit has prompted supermarket chains to stockpile imported food; and the NHS and armed forces have been hoarding drugs. So, too, are consumers, fearing the price shock they’ll face as a result of the reimposition of tariffs for goods, which will drive up shop prices and lead to delays and shortages in fresh meat, fish, fruit and vegetables, say Britain’s retailers.

Remainers have been painting ever more lurid depictions of economic breakdown and social stress. Brexiters dismiss the dire forecasts as fanciful, dubbing them “Project Fear,” part of a naysaying vision offered by traitorous globalists. They say even if the country crashes out, it will thrive, and they point to how well foreign investment into Britain has stood up.

Foreign investment, indeed, has been inching up, and in the first full year after the Brexit plebiscite it did hit a record high. But the headline figure is deceptive, warn economists. The increase is far lower than in the three years before the referendum and is increasing at its weakest rate in almost a decade. More ominously, foreign investment has plunged by 19 percent for ‘greenfield’ projects, where an investor builds a business from scratch.

The British and EU governments have started to implement contingency plans for a no-deal Brexit. A taste of what that would mean for travelers and shippers came last week when France and Belgium tested new Brexit-style border arrangements, triggering two-hour long lines for disembarking rail passengers and lengthy gridlock for transport haulers.

“This will be what it is like after Brexit,” mused a French port director.

 
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