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Russian Spy’s Guilty Plea Illustrates Danger Facing US

Former top U.S. intelligence officials are warning the guilty plea by a former Russian graduate student and self-proclaimed gun-rights advocate should serve as a wake-up call about the Kremlin’s brazen desire and ability to interfere with the American political system.

Maria Butina, a 30-year-old native of Siberia, entered the plea Thursday in Washington, admitting she worked with a top Russian official, and two other Americans, to infiltrate U.S. conservative groups and the Republican Party for Russia’s benefit.

Her efforts, according to court documents, which included attending events hosted by the National Rifle Association gun-rights group and hosting so-called “friendship dinners,” were directed by Alexander Torshin, a deputy governor of Russia’s central bank with ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

At one gathering in 2015, she even managed to ask President Donald Trump, a candidate at the time, about U.S.-Russian relations, prompting him to say he thought he would “get along very nicely” with President Putin.

“It certainly is yet more validation of the Intelligence Community Assessment,” former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper told VOA via email, referring to the unclassified January 2017 report by the country’s top three intelligence agencies that concluded that Putin and the Russian government aspired to sway the election in Trump’s favor

Significance of plea

Clapper, who has been publicly critical of Trump since leaving office, said the Butina plea is most significant because it shows “the lengths to which the Russians went to meddle in the 2016 election.”

“It illustrates, as well, the astute understanding the Russians have of our political ecosystem; the fact that they singled out the NRA speaks to the death grip the NRA has on many of our politicians,” he added.

Other former intelligence officials said the details in Butina’s guilty plea put a spotlight on the Kremlin’s obsession with undermining the U.S. from within.

“The big picture takeaway is that Russia comes at the U.S. target with every option it can muster — full-fledged spies operating under some kind of cover, a corps of “Illegals” like the 10 expelled from the U.S. in 2010, and someone like Butina who is best seen as espionage ‘lite,’” said John McLaughlin, a former acting director of the CIA.

“In combination, these three techniques increase dramatically the possibility that Moscow will gain something — or someone — of intelligence value,” he warned.

​Plea agreement downplayed

A Kremlin spokesman Friday called the charges against Butina “absolutely groundless and invalid.”

And Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov downplayed the significance of the plea agreement.

“As far as I understand the whole idea of this plea agreement — this practice is typical for the U.S. — is to bargain for a chance to go free as soon as possible and to get back home,” he told reporters.

Plea deal unusual

Former U.S. officials admit a plea deal in a case like this is unusual and note that if she makes good on her promise to cooperate truthfully with prosecutors, it could help unravel and expose others who were part of Butina’s network, leading perhaps to more indictments and embarrassment for some organizations.

“It basically pulls the curtain back on the Kremlin’s broader objectives, to gain influence with the Republican Party and the right in America,” said Max Bergman, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress and director of the Moscow Project, and who served in the State Department under President Barack Obama.

One of those coming under scrutiny is Paul Erickson, a U.S. political activist with extensive ties to the Republican Party who was romantically linked with Butina.

Erickson matches the description of “Person 1” in the statement offense provided by prosecutors. “Person 1” helped advise Butina on which politicians to target, according to the document.

Erickson’s lawyer, William Hurd, said in an email to the Reuters news agency, “Paul Erickson is a good American. He has done nothing to harm our country and never would.”

White House officials had no comment Friday on the Butina guilty plea.

Trump himself, while not having commented on Butina specifically, has repeatedly denied allegations he or his presidential campaign coordinated with Russia, calling the special counsel investigation by Robert Mueller a “witch hunt” and stating “NO COLLISION” on Twitter.

Russian efforts to meddle

U.S. intelligence agencies, including the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Federal Bureau of Investigation, also have not commented on the significance or impact of the Butina guilty plea, though many officials have warned Russia’s efforts to meddle in U.S. domestic politics have not stopped.

“We continue to see a pervasive message campaign by Russia to try to weaken and divide the United States,” Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats told reporters from the White House briefing room in the run-up to the U.S. midterm elections this past November.

And in October, U.S. prosecutors unsealed charges against Elena Alekseevna Khusyaynova, described as the chief accountant for Russia’s multimillion-dollar information warfare operation to influence both the 2016 and 2018 elections.

While many of Khusyaynova’s social media efforts focused on conservative U.S. voters, some also targeted liberal voters and aimed to stir up anger, and even hatred, for Trump.

Officials and experts said as a result, it would be a mistake to assume there are no others like Butina out there who, rather than targeting Republicans and conservative groups, are looking to infiltrate liberal parties and organizations.

“The Russians don’t have a partisan agenda,” said the Moscow Project’s Bergman, pointing to a 2015 gala to celebrate the 10th anniversary of Russian-owned television outlet RT, during which Russia’s Putin sat at a table with former Trump adviser, retired Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn and U.S. Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein.

“Their agenda is for discord,” Bergman said.
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Police Deploy Across Paris, France for ‘Yellow Vest’ Protests

A strong police presence deployed in Paris on Saturday for planned demonstrations by the “yellow vest” protesters, with authorities repeating calls for calm after protests in previous weekends turned violent.

Security forces in riot gear were positioned around central train stations and along the famed Champs-Elysees boulevard, where shops were closed and their windows boarded up in anticipation of the protests. Authorities have said about 8,000 police and 14 armored vehicles were being deployed in the French capital.

Paris police say 21 people have been detained by midmorning in the French capital before the protests.

Last weekend, groups of demonstrators smashed and looted stores, clashing with police and setting up burning barricades in the streets.

The “yellow vest” movement, which takes its name from the fluorescent safety vests French motorists must have in their vehicles, emerged in mid-November as a protest against fuel tax increases. It soon morphed into an expression of rage about the high cost of living in France and a sense that President Emanuel Macron’s government is detached from the everyday struggles of workers.

There was a strong police presence Saturday outside the central Saint Lazare train station, where police in riot gear checked bags. More than 20 police vans and a water cannon truck idled nearby.

‘Being bled dry’

Hundreds of people began converging on the Champs-Elysees in the morning.

“We’re here to represent all our friends and members of our family who can’t come to protest, or because they’re scared,” said Pierre Lamy, a 27-year-old industrial worker wearing a yellow vest and with a French flag draped over his shoulders as he walked to the protest with three friends.

He said the protests had long stopped being about the fuel tax and had turned into a movement for economic justice.

“Everything’s coming up now,” Lamy said. “We’re being bled dry.”

Macron calls for calm

Macron on Friday called for calm during the demonstrations, and the French government reiterated the call online for demonstrators to remain peaceful.

“Protesting is a right. So let’s know how to exercise it,” the government tweeted from its official account, with a 34-second video, which begins with images of historic French protests and recent footage of “yellow vests” rallying peacefully before turning to violence.

“Protesting is not smashing. Protesting is not smashing our heritage. Protesting is not smashing our businesses. … Protesting is not smashing our republic,” the video says.
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Mexico Loses 10-Year WTO Battle Over US Tuna Labeling

The United States won a legal battle over “dolphin safe” tuna-labeling on Friday, when the World Trade Organization’s appeals judges dismissed Mexico’s argument that the U.S. labeling rules violated WTO rules.

More than 10 years after the dispute first came to the WTO in October 2008, the WTO ruling ended Mexico’s claim that U.S. labeling rules unfairly penalized its fishing industry.

Mexico said it had cut dolphin deaths to minimal levels but that it was being discriminated against by U.S. demands for paperwork and sometimes government observers. Tuna catches from other regions did not face the same stringent tests, it said.

The dispute centered on U.S. refusal to grant a “dolphin safe” label to tuna products caught by chasing and encircling dolphins with a purse seine net in order to catch the tuna swimming beneath them. Mexico’s tuna fleet in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean used such methods almost exclusively.

“Dolphin-safe tuna” could only be used to describe tuna captured in nets where there was no death or serious injury of dolphins. But the WTO found that “setting on” dolphins with a purse seine net was likely to kill or injure them, even if there was not observable evidence of such deaths and injuries.

The United States lost a first round of the legal battle and changed its rules in 2013. The WTO said the rule change was not enough and a second U.S. rule change followed in 2016. In April last year Mexico won the right to impose $163 million in annual trade sanctions if the WTO ruled that U.S.

labeling laws were still not in line with WTO rules. Mexico had said it planned to impose the sanctions on imports of U.S. high-fructose corn syrup.

Six months later the WTO said the U.S. tuna labeling rules were now WTO-compliant, derailing Mexico’s case and its claim for sanctions. Mexico appealed, leading to Friday’s ruling.
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Spurned in Brussels, May Faces Talk of Cabinet Mutiny in London

British Prime Minister Theresa May was firmly rebuffed Friday by European leaders, who rejected her bid to reopen negotiations on Britain’s deal to leave the European Union. They held out little hope of offering any legal assurances that would help her sell a contentious withdrawal agreement to an unenthusiastic House of Commons.

After testy behind-the-scenes exchanges in Brussels, and a textual hardening overnight of a communique from the national leaders of the EU’s 27 other member states, the embattled May continued to put a brave face on the rejection in a brief press conference Friday.

May told reporters she remained optimistic that the EU will agree to provide legal assurances, helping her to persuade Britain’s parliament to approve her contentious 585-page Brexit withdrawal agreement. She said “further clarification and discussion … are possible,” adding that this is “in the interest of both the EU and Britain.”

Analysts said there appeared to be little evidence that May will be able to squeeze out of the EU anything that would substantially alter the political dynamic in London.

If anything, the EU’s language appears to be hardening, with especially sharp rhetoric coming from France and Belgium.

May was pictured having an especially tense standoff with the European Commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, following comments he made during an overnight news conference, during which he berated May.

The EU’s spurning of May in Brussels is likely to worsen her plight in London, where she’s being described as a “zombie leader” and is still struggling to get a hold on her party, despite overcoming a challenge Wednesday to unseat her as Conservative party leader — and therefore prime minister.

Defiant Euroskeptic rebels, who want a clean, sharp break from the EU, say May still needs to go. They remain unrepentant after their failed bid to topple her. Most Conservative lawmakers who don’t have government positions voted against her during this past week’s no-confidence vote. Those who did back her said they did so in the faint hope that she might be able to wrangle something from the EU and that no other contenders for the leadership have a workable plan to get Britain out of its Brexit maze.

Even some of May’s ministers are making it clear she’s on probation and needs to secure a breakthrough from the EU or they will turn on her.

On Monday, May delayed a scheduled House of Commons vote on the Brexit deal as it became clear lawmakers were set to reject it by a large majority. Defeat would likely force May out of No. 10 Downing Street and possibly trigger the fall of the Conservative government and an early general election.

May’s deal, which was negotiated after almost two years of ill-tempered haggling between British and EU negotiators, tries to square the circle between Britons who want to remain in the EU, or closely tied to it, and Brexiters.

The deal would see Britain locked in a customs union with the EU for several years while it negotiates a more permanent, but vaguely defined, free trade settlement with its largest trading partner.

In the temporary customs union, Britain would be unable to influence EU laws, regulations and product standards it would have to observe. It would not be able to implement free trade deals with non-EU countries.

The transition was reached to avoid customs checks on the border separating Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic, but British lawmakers fear the EU will string out negotiations for years and that Britain could be trapped indefinitely in the transition. May is trying to get the EU to agree to a get-out clause.

As if to underline the door is closed on any significant changes, EU leaders barely mentioned Brexit in their opening remarks at a press conference concluding a two-day EU summit, focusing instead on reform plans for the bloc. Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz acknowledged, though, that in the past six months, European affairs have been “overshadowed by Brexit.”

EU officials say the British should be satisfied with their pledge to move quickly in negotiations over a subsequent free trade deal.

Precarious position

May’s leadership remains precarious and she is still at risk of being toppled, say Conservative party insiders. They compare her plight to that of Margaret Thatcher, who in 1990 won a vote of no confidence in her leadership but was forced to resign when Cabinet ministers one by one told her it was time to go.

“The lesson from 1990 is that there comes a moment when, even if a leader retains a paper majority, the gig is up,” according to commentator Max Hastings, a former editor of Britain’s pro-Conservative newspaper, The Telegraph.

“She’s a speech away from being brought down,” acknowledged a May loyalist in the Cabinet. Even ministers who backed May are indicating she’s not in full control.

Liam Fox, the international trade minister, said Thursday the Cabinet could block May from bringing her exit withdrawal deal before the House of Commons next month and that it might insist Britain’s scheduled departure date of March 29 be moved back several months to provide time for a fresh approach.

With parliament deadlocked and the ruling Conservative party hopelessly split, other senior ministers, including Deputy Prime Minister David Lidington, are now discussing semi-openly across party lines the possibility of holding a second referendum.

An increasing number of lawmakers say another referendum will likely have to be held, but, as ever with Brexit, nothing is simple. Even lawmakers are bitterly divided on what questions should be put to voters.
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Dutch Suspect Kept in Custody in Slaying of US Student

A suspect in the slaying of a 21-year-old American psychology student living in the Dutch port of Rotterdam appeared before a judge Friday and was ordered detained for two more weeks while the investigation continues.

The Rotterdam Public Prosecutor’s Office tweeted that the 23-year-old suspect, whose identity hasn’t been released, was brought before an investigating judge. The hearing wasn’t open to the public.

Sarah Papenheim, a native of Minnesota, was fatally stabbed Wednesday at her home in an apartment building near Erasmus University, where she had been studying since 2016.

Rotterdam police said she died Wednesday after a stabbing in her home near the university. Police tried unsuccessfully to revive her after arriving at her home following reports of an argument.

The suspect was arrested the same day at the railway station in the southern Dutch city of Eindhoven.

The university said it was shocked by her death and was taking care of students and staff. Tributes, including flowers and candles, were left inside her apartment building.

“Our deepest condolences go out to all Sarah’s family and friends at this poignant time,” the university said.

Fikret Egemen, the owner of a kebab restaurant where Papenheim worked part time, fought back tears as he recalled how she immediately fit into his team when she started working for him in September.

“From day one, she picked up everything. She was like family,” he said. “She always worked with a smile, all day long, no problem. Angel.”

The university’s school of social and behavioral sciences, where Papenheim studied, organized a meeting for friends and teachers.

“We encourage our students and staff not to let each other be alone in this difficult time and to get in touch with student advisers and psychologists if they want to,” the university said.

Papenheim’s mother, Donee Odegard, told the Star Tribune newspaper in Minneapolis that her daughter was studying psychology with a focus on suicide. She said Sarah’s brother took his own life three years ago.

“My only two kids, and I’ve lost them both,” Odegard told the newspaper.

She said her daughter, who played the drums, was due back in the United States and had a gig booked with a local musician on December 22. The newspaper said she was from Andover, Minnesota.

Odegard told the Star Tribune the suspect was her daughter’s apartment roommate and that he reportedly had been “getting more and more angry” in recent weeks. The suspect also was a musician, Odegard said.

“They’d talk music all night,” she said. “They kinda clicked on that. Then as time went on, he’d get highs and lows.”

Amid concerns about the suspect’s mental health, Odegard said to her daughter: “`Get out of there,’ but she wouldn’t listen to me,” she told the Star Tribune.

The newspaper reported that musicians are planning a concert to help fund the repatriation of her body. A Gofundme page for donations has raised over $22,000.
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EU Extends Economic Sanctions Against Russia 

EU leaders extended punishing economic sanctions against Russia over the conflict in Ukraine for another six months on Thursday, amid heightened tensions over the Azov Sea clash.

The EU first imposed the measures in July 2014 after Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 was shot down over Ukraine, killing 298 people, an attack blamed by the West on pro-Russian rebels.

Russian economy targeted

The sanctions target whole sectors of the Russian economy including its valuable oil businesses.

“EU unanimously prolongs economic sanctions against Russia given zero progress in implementation of Minsk agreements,” EU President Donald Tusk tweeted from a summit in Brussels.

The EU-brokered Minsk peace agreement, endorsed by both Moscow and Kiev, was first reached in late 2014 and then re-worked in early 2015 but is violated regularly.

The Ukraine-Russia conflict flared up again last month when Russian forces seized three Ukrainian vessels and sailors as they tried to pass through the Kerch Strait from the Black Sea to the Sea of Azov.

28 leaders renew criticism

The 28 EU leaders renewed their criticism of Russia over the incident, voicing their “utmost concern” at Moscow’s “violations of international law” in a strongly-worded summit statement.

“There is no justification for the use of military force by Russia,” the statement said, calling once again for the sailors to be released.

Earlier on Thursday, the NATO military alliance announced it would give Ukraine secure communications equipment by the end of the year to help it combat Russia’s “destabilizing behaviour.”

Along with sector-wide economic sanctions, the EU has measures targeting individuals and organisations over Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and in connection with the conflict in Ukraine.

The leaders said the EU “stands ready to adopt measures to strengthen further its support, including in favour of the affected areas of Ukraine” — opening the door to new sanctions.

9 added to list of people facing sanctions

Earlier this week the EU hit nine more people with sanctions over elections in the breakaway pro-Russian regions of Ukraine which were condemned as illegitimate by the international community.

But new measures would require the unanimous support of all 28 EU countries and some with strong business ties or political sympathies with Russia are resistant to the idea.

The war in eastern Ukraine between government forces and rebels backed by Moscow has claimed more than 10,000 lives and rumbles on despite a series of periodic truce deals. 
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French Police Kill Suspect in Deadly Shooting at Strasbourg Christmas Market

French police have shot dead the gunman suspected of  killing three people late Tuesday at a Christmas market in Strasbourg, according to multiple media reports.

More than 700 officers had been hunting Cherif Chekatt since the attack, which also injured 13 people.

Hundreds of police cordoned off an area in the Neudorf district, a short drive from where the suspect exchanged gunfire with police.

Authorities said the 29-year-old Chekatt was on a watch list of suspected extremists. The gunman’s motive is unknown.

Islamic State takes responsibility

In a tweet Thursday, Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack. The gunman in “the attack in the city of Strasbourg … is one of the soldiers of the Islamic State and carried out the operation in response to calls to target nationals of the coalition” against IS, the terror group’s propaganda agency Amaq said in a message posted on Twitter.​

France raised its security threat level to “emergency attack,” its highest level, adding tighter border controls and boosting security at other Christmas markets.

Suspect deported to France?

Germany’s Interior Ministry spokeswoman Eleonore Petermann said the suspect was convicted in Germany in 2016 and reportedly was deported to France last year.

Petermann said the German government has increased controls on its borders in response to the attack but did not raise the threat level in the country.

Strasbourg is headquarters of the European Parliament. The building was put on temporary lockdown after the shooting.

The market is set up around the Strasbourg cathedral and attracts hundreds of thousands of tourists every year.  Authorities say they have long been on the alert for an attack on the market since a foiled terror plot in Strasbourg on New Year’s Eve in 1999.

France is no stranger to extremist attacks.  Islamic State claimed responsibility for two nights of bombings and shootings in Paris in November 2015, killing 130, months after a deadly shooting at a French satirical magazine, and hostage-taking in a kosher supermarket.

A 2016 terrorist truck attack in Nice left 86 people dead.
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Report: Journalists Faced Intimidation, Prison in 2018

A multipronged crackdown on the press continued throughout 2018, the Committee to Protect Journalists concludes in a report published Thursday.

Imprisonment, intimidation and allegations that journalists produce “fake news” surged in 2016, when U.S. President Donald Trump won the election, CPJ found.

Trump has been a vocal critic of the press, often chastising journalists as “very dishonest people.”

The number of journalists in jail dipped 8 percent, from 272 in 2017 to 251 this year. But that doesn’t mean the situation has improved, Angela Quintal, CPJ’s Africa program coordinator, told VOA.

The numbers fluctuate and may not reflect every imprisoned journalist. They also remain markedly higher than just a half decade ago.

More importantly, targeting a single journalist can have far-reaching repercussions.

“The effects are not only, obviously, [on] the journalists themselves and their families and their colleagues, but we really are talking about the effect on citizens as a whole,” Quintal said.

CPJ’s report highlighted several bright spots.

In Ethiopia, which has experienced dramatic reforms under new leader Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, no journalists are currently known to be imprisoned, for the first time in 14 years.

Improvements in some countries, however, don’t necessarily rub off on others.

“Unfortunately, neighboring Eritrea remains the highest jailer of journalists in sub-Saharan Africa, with 16 journalists behind bars as we speak,” Quintal said.

Worldwide, report author Elana Beiser, CPJ’s editorial director, singled out China, Egypt and Saudi Arabia as troublespots, highlighting how wide-ranging efforts to silence journalists have become.

In sub-Saharan Africa, Quintal’s region of focus, Cameroon, where seven journalists are in jail, is a new country of concern. At least four of those journalists faced false news charges in what Quintal called “a huge, huge setback.”

Overall, more than two dozen journalists have been charged with publishing false news, mainly in Africa.

Accusations and imprisonments can propel self-censorship, with profound effects on citizens’ right to information.

“When you see your colleagues being jailed, when you see them accused of so-called fake news, when they’re being arrested on false news charges,” Quintal said, “it does, obviously, have a chilling effect.”

Quintal herself was targeted, along with colleague Muthoki Mumo, in Tanzania last month.

Despite having an invitation letter from the Media Council of Tanzania, the two, both former journalists, were detained and interrogated.

Quintal, from South Africa, and Mumo, from Kenya, were kept in custody for five hours.

“We were lucky because we were able to leave Tanzania,” Quintal said, contrasting her experience to journalists in the country who have gone missing or continue to face intimidation.

“The abusive nature of what happened to us showed the world the true nature of what is going on in Tanzania at the moment,” she added.

Quintal and Mumo’s case was unusual. Governments tend to target their own citizens, and journalists imprisoned by their governments make up 98 percent of cases, CPJ concluded. They also found that 13 percent of journalists in jail are women, an 8 percent increase from 2017.

Despite worrying signs, there is room for optimism, Quintal said.

When new leaders come to power, she said, human rights and press freedoms can improve very quickly.

Quintal pointed to The Gambia as one example, where the new president, Adama Barrow, has created space for journalists to work without fear of reprisal.

Tuesday, Time magazine selected journalists who have been targeted for doing their work, the “guardians” of truth, as their Person of the Year.
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High-Speed Train Crashes in Ankara; 4 Dead

A high-speed train hit a railway engine and crashed into a pedestrian overpass at a station in the Turkish capital Ankara on Thursday, killing four people and injuring 43 others, officials and news reports said.

The 6:30 a.m. train from Ankara to the central Turkish city of Konya first collided with the engine that was checking the tracks at the capital city’s small Marsandiz station, Ankara Gov. Vasip Sahin told reporters at the scene. The high-speed train transits that station without stopping. 

Private NTV television said at least two cars derailed. Parts of the overpass collapsed onto the train.

Television footage showed emergency services working to rescue passengers from mangled cars and debris.

Rescue teams were looking for more survivors, Sahin said. “Our hope is that there are no other victims,” he said.

It was not immediately clear if a signaling problem caused the accident. Sahin said a technical investigation has begun. 

In July, 10 people were killed and more than 70 injured when most of a passenger train derailed in northwestern Turkey, after torrential rains caused part of the rail tracks to collapse. Last month, 15 people were injured when a passenger train collided with a freight train in Turkey’s central province of Sivas 

Konya, some 260 kilometers (160 miles) southwest of Ankara, is home to the tomb of the Sufi mystic and poet Jalaladdin Rumi, attracting thousands of pilgrims and tourists.
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Britain’s May Survives Confidence Vote, Fails to Tame Critics

There wasn’t much of a honeymoon Wednesday for Britain’s embattled Theresa May after she survived a bid to oust her by critics from her own Conservative party.

Standing outside No. 10 Downing Street after an internal party vote she won but not emphatically, May pledged she will “get on with the job of delivering Brexit.”

But the British leader’s opponents from both the euroskeptic and pro-European Union wings of her party were not silenced, warning her survival has done nothing to improve the chances of getting the House of Commons to approve her contentious Brexit deal.

More than a third of the Conservative lawmakers voted against her, preferring to see the party elect a new leader, underscoring the mountain she still has to scale in getting her Brexit deal through a Parliament that has grave doubts about the agreement.

​Many in party vote against May

Conservative lawmakers rejected a no-confidence motion to May’s leadership, 200-117, but the win has merely exposed the bitter split in her party over Britain’s departure from the EU and provides no clues as to how May can plot a course out of the Brexit maze, analysts say.

Ominously, most lawmakers who don’t have government jobs or positions voted for May to go.

Even May loyalists conceded privately that her win was hardly a ringing endorsement.

Her critics, as well as Britain’s opposition parties, quickly pointed out that surviving an attempt to topple her changes nothing when it comes to the arithmetic in the House of Commons, where a majority oppose a Brexit withdrawal deal, which took months of haggling with the EU to negotiate.

Before May had even finished talking about a “renewed mission” and her hope of “bringing the country back together,” hardcore euroskeptics in her party announced in a statement, “We cannot and will not support the disastrous withdrawal agreement the prime minister has negotiated.”

General election

They warned that if she pushes ahead with it, the likelihood is that she will be setting the country on course for a general election.

May runs a minority government. With the main parties splintered, the House of Commons is deadlocked, and there’s no majority for anything when it comes to Brexit, including crashing out without a deal, staying in, or holding a second referendum. There is only a majority against her deal.

The warning from Conservative euroskeptics was echoed by Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), whose 10 lawmakers in the House of Commons prop up the minority Conservative government.

The DUP is deeply opposed to the withdrawal agreement that would see Northern Ireland treated differently from the rest of Britain, in order to avoid the imposition of customs checks on the border separating Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. They fear the different treatment will end up weakening the ties between the province and London.

May spoke to DUP leader Arlene Foster shortly before the confidence vote, trying to persuade her to withdraw her opposition to the deal.

Foster later said she “emphasized that tinkering around the edges would not work. … We wanted fundamental legal text changes.”

Brexit vote delayed

On Monday, May delayed a scheduled House of Commons vote on the exit deal as it became clear lawmakers were set to reject it. Defeat would likely force May out of No. 10 Downing Street and possibly trigger the fall of the Conservative government and an early general election.

May’s deal, which tries to square the circle between Britons who want to remain in the EU and Brexiters who want a clean, sharp break, would see Britain locked in a customs union with the EU for several years while it negotiates a more permanent, but vaguely defined, free trade settlement with its largest trading partner.

In the temporary customs union, Britain would be unable to influence EU laws, regulations and product standards it would have to observe. It would be not be able to implement free trade deals with non-EU countries.

Opposition parties also warned that May’s remaining as prime minister would not lessen parliamentary opposition to the deal.

“Tonight’s vote changes nothing,” Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbyn said. “Theresa May has lost her majority in Parliament. Her government is in chaos, and she’s unable to deliver a Brexit deal that works for the country and puts jobs and the economy first.”

It is unclear when a Brexit vote in the House of Commons might take place.

​Back to Brussels

Some government managers said the vote could happen next week or even be delayed until next month. All May has said is that it will take place by Jan. 21, a cut-off date for Parliament to get legislation through in time for Britain’s scheduled departure March 29.

May will fly Thursday to Brussels to appeal once again to her fellow EU leaders to agree to concessions. But she tried that Tuesday, criss-crossing Europe on a whistle-stop diplomatic tour that took her to Berlin and The Hague, but got no agreement on anything substantive.
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EU to Offer Ukraine Help Over Azov Sea at Summit 

European Union leaders will offer Ukraine help for its regions affected by Russia’s actions in the Azov Sea when they meet Thursday, according to a draft summit statement seen by Reuters on Wednesday. 

But there is no mention of consideration of further sanctions against Russia, reflecting division among member states. Diplomats expect a rollover of existing sanctions but no consensus on increases sought by more hawkish governments. 

Condemning Russia, the EU will reiterate its support for Ukrainian sovereignty over Crimea’s 2014 annexation by Moscow and — referring to the capture of Ukrainian naval vessels off Crimea last month — said: “There is no justification for the use of military force by Russia.” 

The statement demanded the release of Ukrainian sailors seized during the incident, the return of their vessels and free passage to all ships passing through the Kerch Strait. 

It concluded with the offer of financial and other measures to help areas of eastern Ukraine whose maritime access was affected by Moscow’s action. 

“The EU stands ready to adopt measures to strengthen further its support in favor of the affected areas of Ukraine,” the statement said. 

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko met summit chair Donald Tusk in Brussels on Wednesday and will hold talks at NATO headquarters in the city on Thursday. EU leaders will discuss Ukraine and Russia over a summit dinner later in the day.
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Turkey Says it Will Launch New Syria Offensive Within Days

Turkey’s president says it will begin a new military operation against U.S-backed Kurdish fighters in Syria “within a few days.”

Addressing a defense industry meeting in Ankara on Wednesday, Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the target of the operation would be the Syrian Kurdish militia known as the People’s Protection Units, or YPG — which Turkey views as a terrorist group linked to the insurgency within its borders.

The YPG is the main component of a Kurdish-led militia that rolled back the Islamic State group with the help of the U.S.-led coalition. U.S. troops are deployed with the Kurdish fighters in northeastern Syria, in part to prevent clashes with NATO ally Turkey.

Turkish forces have already waged two cross-border campaigns against Syrian Kurdish forces, in 2016 and earlier this year.

 
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UN Chief Returns as Climate Talks Teeter Closer to Collapse

The United Nations secretary-general flew back to global climate talks in Poland Wednesday to appeal to countries to reach an agreement, as some observers feared the meeting might end without a deal.

U.N. chief Antonio Guterres opened the talks last week, telling leaders to take the threat of global warming seriously and calling it “the most important issue we face.”

But as the two-week meeting shifted from the technical to political phase, with ministers taking over negotiations, campaign groups warned of the risks of failure in Katowice.

Harjeet Singh of ActionAid International said the main holdouts were the United States, Australia and Japan, while the European Union was “a mere spectator.”

“A new leadership must step up,” said Vanessa Perez-Cirera of the environmental group WWF. “We cannot afford to lose one of the twelve years we have remaining.”

She was referring to a recent scientific report by a U.N.-backed panel that suggested average global warming can only be halted at 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) if urgent action is taken by 2030, including a dramatic reduction in use of fossil fuels.

Endorsing the report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change became a crunch issue over the weekend, with the United States, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait opposing the move.

Jean-Pascal Ypersele, a former deputy chair of the panel, said whether or not countries believe the conclusions of the report was irrelevant because the science was clear.

“Nobody, even the so-called superpowers, can negotiate with the laws of physics,” he said.

Ypersele called for the 1.5-degree target — already mentioned in the 2015 Paris accord — to be recognized in the final text.

“It’s a question of survival for a large part of humanity, and many other species,” he said.

Poland, which is chairing the talks, was expected to circulate a condensed draft text Wednesday running to about 100 pages, down from about 300 at the start of the talks.

The Dec. 2-14 meeting is supposed to finalize the rules that signatories of the Paris accord need to follow when it comes to reporting their greenhouse gas emissions and efforts to reduce them.

Li Shuo, a climate expert at Greenpeace, warned that the current text was riddled with loopholes. “A Swiss cheese rulebook is unacceptable,” he said.

Poor countries also want assurances on financial support to tackle climate change.

A third objective of the talks is getting governments to make a firm commit to raising ambitions in the coming two years, albeit without any precise figures.

One issue that has risen to the fore at the talks is the proposal by Poland for countries to back the idea of a “just transition” for workers in fossil fuel industries facing closure from emissions-curbing measures.

Germany’s environment minister, Svenja Schulze, told reporters that her country is committed to phasing out the use of coal, though the exact deadline has yet to be determined.

But in a nod to the recent protests in France over fuel prices, Schulze warned against governments forcing through measures, saying they would lose public support “faster than you can spell climate protection, and then people pull on yellow vests.”
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French Police Search For Suspect in Deadly Strasbourg Shooting

A massive manhunt is underway in France for the gunman who killed three people and wounded 13 others in an attack at the Christmas market in the center of Strasbourg.

French officials deployed hundreds of security forces Wednesday in the search after the suspect escaped from the market following the shooting Tuesday night.

France raised its security threat level to “emergency attack,” adding tighter border controls while security is boosted at other Christmas markets.

Interior Minister Christophe Castaner traveled to Strasbourg to open a terror investigation, but the gunman’s motive was unknown.

Authorities have identified the suspect as 29-year-old Cherif Chekatt and said he was on a watch list of suspected extremists.

Police went to his home earlier in the day Tuesday in connection with a murder investigation, but he was not there at the time.

A witness told reporters that one of those killed in the attack was a tourist from Thailand who was shot in the head and did not respond to emergency treatment.

Strasbourg is headquarters of the European Parliament. The building was put on temporary lockdown after the shooting.

The market is set up around the Strasbourg cathedral and attracts hundreds of thousands of tourists every year. Authorities say they have long been on the alert for an attack on the market since a foiled a terror plot in Strasbourg on New Year’s Eve, 1999.

France is no stranger to extremist attacks. Islamic State claimed responsibility for two nights of bombings and shootings in Paris in November 2015, killing 130, months after a deadly shooting at a French satirical magazine and hostage taking in a kosher supermarket.

A terrorist truck attack in Nice in 2016 left 86 dead.
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