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Trump Wades Into Brexit Debate Again

On the day of a critical vote by British lawmakers to delay departure from the European Union, U.S. President Donald Trump again waded into the contentious debate on Brexit. He promised a “very large trade deal” with the UK- and threatened the European Union on trade. White House Correspondent Patsy Widakuswara has this report.
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Human Rights Agency Rejects Assange Complaint Against Ecuador

An international human rights organization has turned down a request by WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange that Ecuador, which has sheltered him for more than six years at its embassy in London, ease the conditions it has imposed on his residence there.

A spokeswoman for the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights, which is linked to the Organization of American States, said the group rejected Assange’s complaint.

Assange’s lawyer Jennifer Robinson had no immediate comment.

Assange took refuge in Ecuador’s London embassy in 2012 to avoid being extradited to Sweden, where authorities wanted to question him as part of a sexual assault investigation. That probe was later dropped, but Assange fears he could be extradited to face charges in the United States, where federal prosecutors are investigating WikiLeaks.

He says Ecuador is seeking to end his asylum and has put pressure on him to leave by requiring him to pay for his medical bills and phone calls, as well as clean up after his pet cat.

He had sought the support of the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights in his case against Ecuador. While the commission did not back Assange, it said it reminded Ecuador of international law that no state should deport, return or extradite someone to another country where that person might face human rights abuses.

A friend who regularly visits Assange says he privately complains that Ecuador’s government recently replaced Embassy diplomats sympathetic to Assange with officials who are much less friendly.

Last year, U.S. federal prosecutors in the state of Virginia mistakenly made public a document saying that Assange had been secretly indicted. Officials have since declined to confirm or deny he has been charged.

U.S. federal prosecutors in Alexandria, Virginia, have maintained a long-running grand jury investigation into WikiLeaks. One source said it includes a probe into leaks of Central Intelligence Agency documents to the WikiLeaks website.

Earlier this month, a federal judge in Alexandria ordered former U.S. Army intelligence analyst Chelsea Manning to be jailed for contempt after she refused to testify about WikiLeaks before the grand jury.
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Poland’s Catholic Church: 382 Priests Abused 625 Minors

Poland’s Catholic Church authorities revealed Thursday they have recorded cases of 382 clergymen who have abused 625 victims under the age of 18 since 1990.

The figure includes 198 priests and friars who abused minors under 15 years old and 184 clergy who abused victims between 15 and 18, according to Wojciech Sadlon, head of the church’s Institute of Statistics.

In both confirmed and unconfirmed cases, there were 345 victims under age 15 and 280 victims between 15 to 18. The crimes occurred from 1990 through June of last year, Sadlon told a news conference. More than 58 percent of the victims were male.

Archbishop Wojciech Polak, the primate of Poland, expressed “pain, shame and the sense of guilt that such situations took place.”

Authorities said in 25 percent of the cases before church courts, the clergymen were defrocked and in 52 percent of the cases they had their duties limited and were banned from working with children. Acquittals amounted to 10 percent of the cases and 13 percent of the cases were discontinued.

Church leaders said the cases call for a change in the way that vocational seminaries educate clergymen.  

The figures were released following a three-day session of Poland’s Episcopate in Warsaw that discussed abuse and ways of protecting children. The news came just weeks after Pope Francis convened church leaders from around the world to the Vatican, where they discussed how to stop sex abuse by clergy. 

Church leaders in predominantly Catholic Poland have previously admitted they knew that some priests had abused minors in Poland but did not reveal how many.

Compensation for victims

A private foundation supporting victims of abuse has given Francis a list of more than 90 court verdicts concerning priests in Poland and over 300 cases of alleged abuse. The “Have No Fear” foundation on Thursday criticized the Episcopate’s revelation, saying it lacked words of apology or any mention about compensation for victims.

Despite the millions in compensation paid out to victims by Catholic authorities in other countries, Polish church leaders argue that the church as an institution has no obligation to compensate victims because the crimes were committed by individual persons.

Last month, a statue of a prominent Solidarity-era priest was torn down at night in the northern city of Gdansk amid allegations that the late Rev. Henryk Jankowski, respected for his pro-democracy activity in the 1980s, abused minors. It was later officially removed from the Rev. Jankowski Square, which was also renamed.

Poland’s Catholic church has the support of the country’s conservative government and enjoys special respect in the nation due to its role in preserving Poland’s national identity during World War II and under decades of communist rule.
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British MPs Overwhelmingly Back Brexit Delay

British lawmakers voted overwhelmingly Thursday to seek a delay in Britain’s exit from the European Union, setting the stage for Prime Minister Theresa May to renew efforts to get her divorce deal approved by parliament next week.

Lawmakers approved by 412 votes to 202 a statement setting out the option to request a short delay if a Brexit deal can be agreed by March 20 — or a longer delay if no deal can be agreed in time.

Just 15 days before Britain is due to leave the European Union, May is using the threat of a long delay to push Brexit supporters in her Conservative Party to finally back her deal.

A new vote on her deal is likely next week, when those lawmakers will have to decide whether to back a deal they feel does not offer a clean break from the EU, or accept that Brexit could be watered down or even thwarted by a lengthy delay.

Earlier, lawmakers voted by 334 to 85 against a second referendum on EU membership. Most opposition Labour lawmakers did not back the measure, and even campaigners for a so-called People’s Vote said the time was not yet right for parliament to vote on the matter.

The government narrowly survived an attempt to give lawmakers control of the parliamentary agenda on March 20 with the aim of forcing a discussion of alternative Brexit options at a later date.

May’s authority hit an all-time low this week after a series of humiliating parliamentary defeats and rebellions. But she has made clear her plan is still on the agenda, despite twice being rejected by an overwhelming majority in parliament, in January and again Tuesday.

May’s spokesman said earlier Thursday that she would put her Brexit deal, struck after two-and-a-half years of negotiations with the EU, to another vote “if it was felt that it were worthwhile.”

Seeking to win over dissenters, she has given rebellious Conservative lawmakers a thinly-veiled warning that a failure to back her plan could mean no Brexit at all.

Britons voted by 52-to-48 percent in a 2016 referendum to leave the EU, a decision that has not only divided the main political parties but also exposed deep rifts in British society.

Sterling has swung more wildly this week than at any point since 2017, rising from below $1.30 to a nine-month high of almost $1.34 as investors bet Britain would avoid a no-deal Brexit.
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Trump Jumps Into Brexit Debate — Again

After telling reporters he would stay in his lane and avoid commenting on the contentious British exit from the European Union, U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday immediately did just the opposite.

Alongside Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar in the Oval Office, Trump declared that Brexit is “actually tearing a lot of countries apart.”

Trump also lamented he was “surprised at how badly it has all gone from the standpoint of negotiating.”

The president said he had advised British Prime Minister Theresa May how to negotiate her country’s divorce from the EU, but “she didn’t listen to that.”

Asked by a reporter if he believes there should be a second public referendum on Brexit in Britain, Trump replied he does not think that would be possible and it would be “unfair to the people who won.”

In 2016, Britons who desired to remain in the EU were narrowly outvoted by those choosing to depart the 28-member state, political and economic union.

The issue of the United Kingdom border with the Republic of Ireland is one of Brexit’s most complex points, noted Trump.

“I’d like to see that whole situation with Brexit work out,” Trump added.

After Brexit, “we can do a very big trade deal with the U.K.,” noted Trump.

He also warned of tariffs being applied on the EU if trade talks with the United States falter.

“If they don’t talk to us, we’re going to do something that’s very severe economically,” Trump again warned.

Trump, during the traditional St. Patrick’s Day seasonal meeting here between the leaders of the United States and Ireland, then turned to Varadkar, offering him an opportunity to speak about Brexit.

“We have a different opinion, president,” said the Irish prime minister. “I regret that Brexit’s happening and the U.K. was a really important part of the European Union.”

The most concerning element for Ireland, Varadkar said, is that Brexit should not cause any problems in Northern Ireland, which voted to stay in the EU.

“We shouldn’t have a hard border or anything to disrupt the peace process,” said Varadkar.

Until the 1998 Good Friday agreement, violence in the previous three decades in Northern Ireland killed more than 3,500 people. The conflict pitted loyalist Protestant paramilitary groups and the British army against the Irish Republican Army, a Catholic republican militia that was considered a terrorist organization by London.

“I think it’ll be a few years until the United Kingdom sorts itself out,” predicted Varadkar.

The British parliament votes Thursday on a last-minute delay for Brexit, which is scheduled for March 30.

It will be the third attempt by Prime Minister May to convince reluctant lawmakers to support her EU exit plan.
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Brexit: What Now?

Veteran Conservative lawmaker Nigel Evans has been in Britain’s House of Commons for more than a quarter-of-a-century and, like most of his parliamentary colleagues, is stunned at the turn of Brexit events.

“I got elected in 1992 and I don’t know if I have known any time more uncertain than now,” he told VOA.

He’s flummoxed at what the next move should be for a Conservative government that has lost control of the Brexit process.

As a committed Brexiter, he fears Britain will end up staying in the European Union because of an impasse in the Commons that has seen the ruling Conservative government repeatedly rebuffed by lawmakers, including by a third of its own MPs, in a series of historic votes without precedent for the storied House of Commons.

Parliament is not alone in being hopelessly divided: Theresa May’s Cabinet is, too, with the British prime minister lurching between pro-EU rebel ministers and their pro-Brexit counterparts, trying to resuscitate a government that appears to be in terminal decline.

Divorce delayed

More than 20 ministers have resigned in the past two years — and at least another half-dozen are on the cusp of quitting. Midweek another minister resigned and four declined to vote with their own government — an unprecedented defiance left unpunished.

Britain’s newspaper headline writers are running out of superlatives and metaphors to describe the political havoc. “We’re becoming the laughing stock of the World,” fumes Andrew Pierce, the Daily Mail’s associate editor, in College Green, the patch of grass outside parliament which has become a media encampment of tents, wires and cameras besieged by chanting, dueling placard-waving protesters.

Britain was due to exit the EU in 16 days’ time, on March 29.

On Wednesday, the House of Commons voted against Britain exiting the EU without a deal — in effect delaying Brexit until further notice. That followed Tuesday’s crushing parliamentary defeat of Theresa May’s Brexit withdrawal agreement — the second time pro-EU and hardline pro-Brexit lawmakers have combined to reject it. Lawmakers Thursday are expected to pass a measure seeking formally to delay Brexit, at least to June 30. EU leaders are divided about accepting a request for delay.

Donald Tusk, the president of the EU Council, tweeted Thursday: “I will appeal to the EU27 to be open to a long extension if the UK finds it necessary to rethink its #Brexit strategy and build consensus around it.”

The Remainers hope to either block Brexit altogether or at least steer it in a gentler direction with Britain still closely aligned although not a member of its political institutions. Hardline Brexiters want a no-nonsense sharp break with the EU, ready to accept the economic damage to Britain that will wreak, at least in the medium term.

That Evans feels unable to predict what happens next is instructive. He is no junior lawmaker, but a so-called “Tory grandee”, and he helps to direct the 1922 Committee, of which all backbench Conservative lawmakers are members.

When the bosses of the 1922 Committee tell a Conservative leader to quit, their word has the force of the Lord High Executioner. The last time the 22, as its nicknamed, deposed a party leader was in 2003, ousting one of Theresa May’s predecessors for losing a general election.

Are they close to giving May the push now? Evans is guarded but makes little secret he thinks the time is close at hand. “Her authority is greatly weakened,” he says grimly.

Replacing May

Pro-Brexit Conservative bloggers and columnists are in vituperative mood, blaming May for mishandling the negotiations with the EU and, from their viewpoint, giving too much ground to Brussels. Gridlock has been the result, they say.

“I can see no scenario where she is the answer for taking the country forward. She should by rights go now. At some point in the next two or three weeks it will even dawn on Mrs. May that it is time to go,” Conservative blogger Iain Dale tells VOA.

WATCH:  British Leadership Change Possible in Wake of Brexit Chaos

Then what?

The vultures are circling. Half-a-dozen would-be replacements from inside May’s Cabinet have in effect been auditioning already for the job, delivering speeches carving out their vision for the country. Some contenders have advanced plans, including printing up campaign material for what they expect is an inevitable leadership election.

A Conservative grassroots favorite, Boris Johnson, the former foreign minister, has had a modern makeover and dispensed with his trademark tousle-haired slapdash look and is now sporting a stylish boyband haircut.

But it is not clear that replacing Theresa May will solve anything or break the political impasse, which is why the 1922 Committee has stayed its hand.

There is no obvious unity candidate to succeed her. A new leader will face the same splits inside the Conservative party between Remainers, Brexiters and the those who favor a so-called soft Brexit modeled on Norway’s relationship with the EU, which would see Britain remain in the bloc’s single market and customs union as well as accept freedom of movement.

And the deadlocked parliamentary arithmetic will remain the same.

Another try

In a final throw of the dice, May is planning to bring her contentious deal back to the Commons for a third time, hoping that she will prevail by sheer persistence. It is the continuation of her strategy of brinkmanship — to run the clock down and force Conservative Brexiters and a handful of allied Northern Irish lawmakers to give in, prompted to do so by the fear that otherwise Britain might never leave the EU in any form.

It is not clear that the pro-EU Speaker of the House, John Bercow, will allow her to do so — under parliamentary rules a government is not meant to keep asking the House to vote repeatedly on the same measure. “If she can pull it off, it will be the political equivalent of Lazarus rising from the dead,” admits a Downing Street official.

Some believe she has a chance of succeeding in this high-stakes game of chicken. Evans does not think so. “For some of the rebels it would be better to stay in the EU than accept this deal, which would have us at the beck and call of Brussels without any power,” he says. Another key Brexiter, Steve Barclay, says he and many of his colleagues will keep voting the deal down “whatever the pressure we’re put under.”

Keeping calm and carrying on?

Beyond Westminster, there is fear, exasperation and anger. And clear Brexit fatigue. BBC Radio Five Live has seen the volume of Brexit-related call-ins tail off recently. There are signs, according to some opinion polls, that the mood of the country may have shifted slightly in favor of remaining in the EU, suggesting that a second referendum would deliver a narrow win for Remain.

As yet there is no majority in the House of Commons for holding a re-run referendum. Nor are lawmakers keen on holding a snap general election, for fear that might result in an equally deadlocked parliament afterwards.

Business leaders were already fuming at all the Brexit uncertainty before this week’s upheaval. “Enough is enough. A new approach is needed by all parties. Jobs and livelihoods depend on it,” said Carolyn Fairbairn, the director-general of the Confederation of British Industry, a major business association.
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Estonian President Urges Unity Among Allies Against Russia

Estonia’s president called for continued unity among democratic allies in the face of Russian aggression on Wednesday and expressed a wish for even greater U.S. involvement in the Baltics.

Kersti Kaljulaid, on her second visit to the United States in less than a year, told an audience at the Brookings Institution that membership in the European Union and NATO have served to defend and enhance her country’s sovereignty.

With only 1.2 million people and located on the Baltic Sea near Russia, the former Soviet republic has been especially concerned about growing Russian assertiveness, particularly since its annexation of the Ukrainian region of Crimea and its military support for two breakaway regions in Georgia.

‘Direct involvement in Baltics’

The United States has responded with military exercises along NATO’s borders with Russia and a troop presence in Poland, actions acknowledged by Kaljulaid. While “America’s contribution to enhanced forward presence in Poland is appreciated, we would love to see more U.S. direct involvement in the Baltics as well,” she said.

Rachel Ellehuus, deputy director and senior fellow with the Europe Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said Estonia and its Baltic neighbors have served as model members of NATO since being admitted to the defense alliance in 2004, but cannot defend themselves without help.

“Due to their small size, they need our and NATO’s help in procuring big-ticket capabilities,” Ellehuus said in an interview.

Quick US response appreciated

The former Pentagon official noted that the United States was the first country to send forces to the Baltics following Russia’s takeover of Crimea.

She said she would like to see “a persistent rotational presence of U.S. forces in the Baltics and possibly funding in the appropriations bill to support regional capability development in areas such as air and maritime surveillance.”

In an age of increasing attention devoted to big-power politics and competition, it is understood that small states like the Baltic countries cannot win a war against a power like Russia, but they can raise the cost of war for their potential adversaries.

“Their strategy is to increase resilience and hold the line until reinforcements, i.e., NATO, regional partners, can come to their aid,” said Ellehuus. She quoted her former boss at the Pentagon, Secretary of Defense James Mattis, saying that “even the bear knows to avoid the porcupine.”

In Ellehuus’s words: The Baltics can take steps “to make themselves as indigestible as possible,” even though they don’t have the capacity to win an all-out war against their giant neighbor to the east.

‘Follow-up plan’

In her speech on Wednesday, Kaljulaid said her country was prepared to “hold the line” against an initial assault but that the “follow-on plan” involving sufficient allied forces was not yet in place.

Her visit to Washington comes at a time when the Pentagon made it clear in the latest national defense budget proposal that it is focused on countering rising capacities from both Russia and China and ensuring that potential adversaries know there is “no path to victory” if they choose to fight the United States.
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‘Fort Trump’ One Step Closer to Becoming Polish Reality

A proposed permanent U.S. military base in Poland, nicknamed “Fort Trump,” is one step closer to becoming a reality. 

Negotiations on establishing the base are “ongoing this very week,” Kathryn Wheelbarger, the acting assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, told the House Armed Services Committee on Wednesday. 

Wheelbarger’s comments came as John Rood, the undersecretary of defense for policy, met with his Polish counterpart to work out details of what Rood called a “generous offer” from Poland, according to defense officials.  

Warsaw has offered to contribute at least $2 billion to place permanent U.S. forces and assets in Poland, a NATO ally, in an attempt to deter any possible Russian aggression. NATO has expanded its presence near Russia’s borders to reassure its eastern members, a buildup Russia has described as a threat to its security. 

“We’ve come forward with, we think, a very serious, robust offer, and we’re working out some of the technicalities this very week,” Wheelbarger said. “We hope to have a very solid foundation to work from coming out of this meeting today.” 

She added that it would most likely take six months to a year for any base agreement to be finalized. 

Permanent base seen as ‘helpful’

The U.S. military would not need to start budgeting for the base for at least two or three years, according to Army Gen. Curtis “Mike” Scaparrotti, the head of U.S. European Command. 

Asked about making rotational U.S. forces permanent in Poland, Scaparrotti told lawmakers he’s “perfectly content with the large forces that we are rotating,” but a more permanent base would be “helpful.” 

Negotiations on the proposed base with Warsaw come amid reports that the Trump administration is considering a plan in which wealthy nations such as Germany, Japan and South Korea would be required to pay the full cost of U.S. soldiers deployed on their territory, plus 50 percent more for the privilege of American defense. 

Wheelbarger denied that the “cost plus 50” idea was being discussed for European allies, telling lawmakers, “My understanding is that rhetoric came from conversations from the Pacific; it’s not a conversation we’ve had in my portfolio at all.”
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British Lawmakers Reject No-Deal Brexit in Any Circumstance

British lawmakers on Wednesday overwhelmingly rejected leaving the European Union without a deal, paving the way for a vote to delay Brexit to seek a way out of Britain’s worst political crisis in generations.

Lawmakers voted by 312 to 308 in favor of a cross-party motion that ruled out a potentially disorderly ‘no-deal’ Brexit under any circumstances.

It went further than the government’s own planned motion, which noted that parliament did not want to leave without a deal on March 29 and that the default legal position was to leave without a deal unless one was ratified by parliament.

While the approved motion has no legal force and ultimately may not prevent a no-deal exit after a possible delay, it carries considerable political force.

After two-and-a-half years of negotiations and two failed attempts to pass a Brexit deal proposed by May, the vote against a no-deal exit still leaves undecided how, when and on what terms Britain will leave the club it joined in 1973.

After lawmakers crushed her deal for a second time on Tuesday, May said it was still the best option for leaving in an orderly fashion.

Ahead of Wednesday’s vote, the pound headed for its biggest daily rise in 2019 as investors bet on a vote against a no-deal Brexit. It rose again on the result of the vote.

As the United Kingdom’s three-year Brexit crisis spins towards its finale, diplomats and investors see four main options: a delay, May’s deal passing at the last minute, an accidental no-deal exit or another referendum. Delay until when?

If Britain does seek a delay, it will require the agreement of all the bloc’s other 27 members.

The EU would prefer only a short extension, with the deadline of EU-wide parliamentary elections due May 24-26, although it is unclear that this would be long enough to solve the impasse in London.

EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said the bloc would need to know why Britain wanted to extend talks and that it was up to London to find a way out of the deadlock. The EU said there could be no more negotiations on the divorce terms.

As Brexit uncertainty spills into financial markets across the world, investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are offering different probabilities on the outcomes.

“We continue to see a 55 percent chance that a close variant of the prime minister’s Brexit deal is eventually ratified, after a three-month extension of Article 50,” Goldman said. It gave a reversal of Brexit a 35 percent probability and a no-deal Brexit 10 percent.

Britons voted by 52-48 percent in 2016 to leave the bloc, a decision that has split the main political parties and exposed deep rifts in British society.

May’s deal covers such things as citizens’ rights, the status of the Irish border and Britain’s divorce bill from the EU. It takes Britain out of the EU single market and customs union, common fisheries and farm policies and the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. It also offers a status-quo transition period in which to negotiate trade arrangements.

Under a no-deal exit, there would be no transition period to soften the disruption to trade and regulations. Britain would quit the EU’s 500 million-strong single market and customs union and fall back on World Trade Organisation rules, which could mean tariffs on many imports and exports.
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With Brexit Deal Down, UK Lawmakers Have 2 More Choices

Now that British lawmakers overwhelmingly rejected Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit divorce deal for a second time, the country’s planned March 29 departure from the bloc is an open question. 

Lawmakers now have two starkly different choices: no deal or delay. 

A look at what might happen in the days ahead:

Destination no-deal 

The House of Commons voted 391-242 against May’s EU withdrawal agreement Tuesday, snubbing changes she secured from the bloc the night before to allay concerns about the deal’s Irish border provisions. Lawmakers voted down the deal in January by an even bigger margin.

After the tally, May said Parliament would  vote Wednesday on whether to abandon efforts to secure an agreement and to leave the EU as planned in a little more than two weeks without a deal.

A phalanx of pro-Brexit politicians supports that idea. They argue it would free the U.K. from  EU rules and red tape, allowing the country to forge an independent global trade policy.

But economists and businesses fear a so-called “no-deal Brexit” would hammer the economy as tariffs and other trade barriers go up between Britain and the EU, its biggest trading partner.

In the short term, there could be gridlock at British ports and shortages of fresh produce. In the long run, the government says a no-deal scenario would leave the economy 6 percent to 9 percent smaller over 15 years than remaining in the EU.

Last month, Parliament passed a non-binding amendment ruling out a “no-deal” Brexit, and it is unlikely they will support it now. May said lawmakers would be free to follow their consciences rather than party lines when they consider the question Wednesday.

Delay, delay, delay

If lawmakers give leaving the EU without an agreement a thumbs down, they have one choice left: seeking more time. A third vote scheduled for Thursday is on asking the EU to delay Brexit day by up to three months.

This option is likely to prove popular, since politicians on both sides of the Brexit debate fear time is running out to secure an orderly withdrawal by March 29.

Extending the timeframe for Brexit would require approval from all 27 remaining EU member countries. They have an opportunity to grand such a request at a March 21-22 summit in Brussels. But the rest of the EU is reluctant to postpone Brexit beyond the late May elections for the EU’s legislature, the European Parliament.

The EU said Tuesday that Britain needs to provide “a credible justification” for any delay.

Crisis deferred 

Whatever Parliament decides, it will not end Britain’s Brexit crisis. Both lawmakers and the public remain split between backers of a clean break from the EU and those who favor continuing a close relationship through a post-Brexit trade deal or by reversing the June 2016 decision to leave.

May is unwilling to abandon her hard-won Brexit agreement and might try to put it to Parliament a third time, although the latest margin of defeat makes that tricky.

Some lawmakers want her to have Parliament consider different forms of Brexit to see if there is a majority for any course of action.

Some think the only way forward is a snap election that could rearrange the forces in Parliament and break the political deadlock. May has ruled that out, but could come to see it as her only option.

And anti-Brexit campaigners haven’t abandoned efforts to secure a new referendum on whether to remain in the EU. The government opposes the idea, which at the moment also lacks majority support in Parliament.

However, the political calculus could change if the paralysis drags on. The opposition Labour Party has said it would support a second referendum if other options were exhausted.

It all means more twists are coming in the Brexit drama.

“No one really believes this is the last chance saloon,” said Oliver Patel, a research associate at the European Institute at University College London.

 
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British Parliament Rejects May’s Latest Brexit Plan to Split from EU

British lawmakers on Tuesday overwhelmingly rejected Prime Minister Theresa May’s latest effort to set the terms of Britain’s Brexit deal to split from the European Union on March 29.

The House of Commons voted 391-242 against May’s plan, setting up a Wednesday vote on whether Britain should quit the 28-nation EU bloc without agreeing on any of the details of its departure. And if that fails, a Thursday vote on whether to ask the EU for more time to negotiate an agreement.

May implored lawmakers to adopt the deal she negotiated Monday with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker for “legally binding changes” to ensure that the border between EU member Ireland and Britain’s Northern Ireland would remain open after Brexit.

But the outcome mirrored a January vote on an earlier plan, which May lost even more decisively, by 230 votes.

After losing again, May, the Conservative Party leader, told the House of Commons, “I continue to believe the best and only way” to quit the EU is “in an orderly way.”

She said the next options “are unenviable choices” — leaving without a deal, or asking for more time to negotiate after already spending months to reach terms of the now-defeated pacts.

Jeremy Corbyn, leader of Britain’s main opposition Labor Party, told the parliamentarians, “The government has now been defeated by an enormous majority. The prime minister has run down the clock, and the clock has run out on her.” He called for a new election.

Before Tuesday’s vote, May told lawmakers, “The danger for those of us who want to deliver, to have faith in the British public and deliver on their vote for Brexit, is that if this vote is not passed tonight, if this deal is not passed, then Brexit could be lost.”

Key opponents to her plan quickly emerged.

Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party said May had only made “limited” progress in negotiating the new terms, and said its 10 members in parliament would vote against her plan.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the EU had made “clear, far-reaching proposals” to address Britain’s concerns about the deal. But she deflected a question about whether she was willing to delay the British exit from the EU if British lawmakers could not agree on a plan.

The original deal, rejected two months ago, called for a backstop agreement that would keep Britain and the EU in a customs union until they agree on a new trade agreement. Opponents in Britain’s parliament said they were concerned about being locked into EU rules instead of being able to gain full control of trade policies.

May said the new terms agreed to Monday would ensure the backstop deal is not a permanent part of Britain’s exit from the EU.

The Labor Party rejected the plan, saying it still does not go far enough to allay its concerns.

Juncker warned that Britain is running out of options.

“It is this deal, or Brexit might not happen at all,” he said.
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Turkish-Russian Military Cooperation Deepens Amid US-Turkish Tensions

Russian and Turkish military cooperation is deepening as Ankara’s relationship with Washington deteriorates. Recent joint naval exercises between Russia and Turkey, and increasing military cooperation in Syria, come as NATO allies question Turkey’s allegiance to the Western defense alliance.

A joint naval drill last Friday was part of a broader Turkish national military exercise. While the drills involved only a few ships, analysts have described its political implications as far more significant.

“The realization of the Russian-Turkish common military exercises is a message both for the West and for the region of the Middle East that two sides cooperate,” said Zaur Gasimov, an Istanbul-based analyst for the Max Weber Foundation.

The choice of the Black Sea for the joint exercise also is heavy on political symbolism, given that it is a focal point of tensions between NATO and Russian forces, and it sends a message that likely will not be lost on Turkey’s NATO members, other analysts say.

“This is another confirmation that Turkey is the odd man in the room when it comes to the NATO membership; nearly all people think Turkey is only a member on paper,” said political scientist Cengiz Aktar, adding, “And how successful Moscow has been to cut Turkey from NATO.”

“This is a trend thus far, from being temporary or tactical; this is a long-term strategy of Russia,” added Aktar.

Moscow has been quick to exploit bilateral tensions between Ankara and Washington over myriad differences.

“The unprecedented amelioration of Turkish-Russian cooperation at present should be seen in the context of the unprecedented aggravation of the ties between Ankara and Washington,” Gasimov said.

S-400 missiles

Washington’s backing of Syrian YPG Kurdish forces in the fight against Islamic State has driven bilateral ties between the U.S. and Turkey, a NATO ally, to the breaking point. Ankara has designated the YPG as terrorists linked to the PKK, which has been waging a decades-long insurgency inside Turkey.

Moscow’s sale of its S-400 missiles to Ankara has further ratcheted up Turkish-U.S. tensions. Washington is warning of sanctions if the purchase is completed, saying the weapons threaten NATO defense systems.

Russians believe that Turkey will buy the S-400 and, for Moscow, the deal has a political impact, Gasimov said. “The entire process of sell and buy of S-400 poisoned the shaky ties between Ankara and Washington.”

Syria

While U.S.-Turkish divisions deepen, Ankara and Moscow are increasing cooperation in Syria. Russia and Turkey back rival sides in the civil war but increasingly are working together along with Iran to end the conflict, under the auspices of the so-called “Astana Process.”

This month saw Turkish and Russian forces begin coordinating military patrols in the last Syrian rebel enclave of Idlib. The patrols are part of a more comprehensive agreement hammered out between the Russian and Turkish presidents, Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

The agreement averted a Syrian regime offensive into the province of Idlib which would have likely triggered a refugee exodus into neighboring Turkey.

However, analysts are questioning the sustainability of Turkish-Russian cooperation in Idlib. “Russians sooner or later will clear Idlib, which is filled with tens of thousands of terrorists,” Aktar said, “and this, the first and foremost point of disagreement between Ankara and Moscow.”

The Turkish-Russian patrols in Idlib came in response to Moscow voicing frustration with Ankara over what Moscow claimed was the failure by Turkey’s armed forces to rein in radical groups in Idlib.

Strategies

For now, however, it appears Moscow’s priority is deepening cooperation with Ankara. Local Turkish media reported Tuesday that Russian and Turkish forces are planning joint patrols in Tel Rifaat, an area controlled by the YPG Kurdish militia. The patrols aim to reduce tensions with the YPG and Turkish troops, which continually skirmish.

Moscow, like Washington, has developed a good relationship with the YPG. The PYD, the political wing of the YPG, has offices in Moscow. Russia, unlike Turkey’s Western allies, has not designated the PKK a terrorist organization. Ankara voices little public criticism of Moscow’s PKK stance, while at the same time castigating its European and American allies for not cracking down enough on the PKK, even though they do categorize the militants as terrorists.

Turkey’s growing alienation from its traditional Western allies seems set to continue given Ankara’s deepening ties with Moscow, and analysts warn of inescapable historical diplomatic realities.

“Historically speaking, since Peter the Great [Russian 18th century leader), Turks and Russians never had any joint strategic objective, never, this is for 300 years,” Aktar said. “Also, it’s not possible now that they start to kiss each other and have joint strategic objectives; these countries will always be regional rivals. Unfortunately, Ankara thinks they can play Russian and Americans against each other; it won’t work.”
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