Georgia struggles to emerge from Russian shadow ahead of crucial election

Tbilisi, Georgia — On a clear October day, the snow-capped Caucasus mountain peaks of Georgia’s South Ossetia are visible from Tbilisi. Yet for most Georgians, the region is off-limits. 

South Ossetia, and Abkhazia farther to the west, have been under the control of Russian-backed separatists since 1992. Both regions broke away from Georgia during the collapse of the Soviet Union, in brutal ethnic conflicts stoked by Moscow.  

Russia’s historical influence looms over Georgia’s upcoming election on Oct. 26, which is widely seen as a referendum on a future aligned to the West or to Moscow. 

The ruling Georgian Dream party has pledged to reconcile with the breakaway regions and reunite Georgia. 

“I want to use this opportunity to address our people on the other side of occupation land in Abkhazia and Tskhinvali (South Ossetia) regions,” Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze said at the United Nations’ General Assembly last month. 

“Whatever actions we take are done to help our people, so that one day with our children we can live together in one happy, united and developed Georgia. On this side of the occupation line, we will always meet you with an open heart. We have to rebuild all the broken bridges in our country,” Kobakhidze added. 

Russian forces invaded Georgia in 2008, before formally recognizing South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states. Several hundred Georgian soldiers and civilians died in the five-day conflict. Russia’s troops still occupy 20% of Georgian territory, including the two breakaway regions. 

Yet the billionaire founder of Georgian Dream, Bidzina Ivanishvili, blames Georgia for the conflict, accusing the “criminal regime” of former Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili of starting the war on the orders of foreign powers. 

“Immediately after the October 26 elections, those who instigated the war will face justice,” Ivanishvili said at a campaign event on Sept. 15 in Gori, a city briefly occupied by Russian forces in 2008. He said that Georgia would then apologize for the war. 

Ivanishvili’s comments sparked widespread anger among Georgians.  

Critics said it’s a stark example of Georgian Dream’s closer alignment with Russia — but this time, it backfired. 

“In this case, they didn’t get a favorable response from Russia,” noted political analyst Ghia Nodia of Georgia’s Ilia State University. “Russia stated that Abkhazia and South Ossetia are independent states, and reunification with Georgia isn’t going to happen.” 

Georgian Dream officials defended Ivanishvili’s comments. 

“In order to resolve this conflict, of course, there’s the issue with Russia, but there’s also the problem between Georgian society and the Ossetians and Abkhazians,” said Nikoloz Samkharadze, a member of Georgian Dream and chairman of the parliamentary Foreign Relations Committee. “Reconciliation won’t happen unless these societies forgive and apologize to one another.” 

The legacy of Stalin 

The weight of history on the upcoming election extends from well before the collapse of communism and Georgian independence in 1991.  

Giorgi Kandelaki is from the Tbilisi-based Soviet Past Research Laboratory, an organization dedicated to busting romanticized myths about the Soviet Union and uncovering the truth of Communist rule. He said Georgian Dream’s leaders, aided by Moscow, are attempting to rewrite the history of Georgian-born Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin — an effort to stoke divisive culture wars ahead of the election. 

“Many polls indicate that Stalin’s popularity is rising in Georgia, with him being seen as a model of Georgian patriotism,” Kandelaki told VOA. 

“This narrative paints Western civilization as a threat, for example by attempting to ‘make us all gay,’ while portraying the Russian world, with an emphasis on religion, as the savior of our souls. In this project, Stalin, as an icon of Georgian patriotism, plays a crucial role.

“Georgian Dream, especially its grassroots supporters and local leaders in the regions, also plays a role in promoting this narrative,” he added. 

More than 70 years after his death, the debate over Stalin’s legacy remains a live issue in Georgia’s election.  

The European Union has frozen accession talks with the Georgian government, citing concerns over a slide towards autocracy. Last Friday, EU lawmakers approved a resolution that expressed regret over the “growing cult of Stalin and the related increase in Soviet nostalgia in Georgia, supported by the ruling government, which underscores its closer alignment with Russia.”  

Georgian Dream strongly rejected that characterization.  

“This is utter nonsense and absurd. No one is promoting the cult of Stalin in Georgia,” Samkharadze told VOA. “I urge [EU lawmakers] to once again come to Georgia and show me the processes that supposedly contribute to promoting the cult of Stalin. This is especially offensive to me, considering I come from a family that was repressed by the Stalin regime.” 

The EU resolution, which calls for sanctions to be imposed on Ivanishvili, also suggested that the Georgian government was trying to bury the truth about what happened during Soviet times.

“Some of Georgia’s most important Soviet-era archives (including the archives of the former KGB and the former Central Committee of the Communist Party) have been completely closed since October 2023 without any explanation,” according to the EU parliament resolution. 

Giorgi Kandelaki of the Soviet Past Research Laboratory echoed that complaint. “Since 2013, [the Georgian government] has implemented increasingly restrictive measures, gradually making it harder for researchers to access these archives. Today, it’s easier to study Soviet archives in Russia than it is in Georgia,” he said. 

Again, Georgian Dream denied those accusations. “Regarding the archives, there are no restrictions, except for foreign citizens. Georgian citizens have no restrictions whatsoever,” Samkharadze told VOA. 

Georgian Dream insisted it intends to join the EU by 2030, an aspiration enshrined in the country’s constitution. The party denied it is pro-Russian, highlighting resolutions it has sponsored at the U.N. condemning Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. 

The party has held power since 2012 — but polls suggest it will struggle to retain its majority in the upcoming election.  

Aka Zarqua, the editor-in-chief of the website Realpolitika, said voters no longer trust Georgian Dream. 

“The strategic ambiguity they tried to maintain over the years — claiming to support the EU and the West, while simultaneously taking anti-Western steps — has collapsed,” he said.
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