Posted on January 12, 2025
Поліція Києва провела обшуки в юнаків зі скандальних відео
«Правоохоронці запросили юнаків разом з їхніми батьками до відділку поліції, де вони надавали пояснення з приводу зазначених подій»
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Posted on January 12, 2025
Волтц каже, що нова адміністрація Торампа проситиме зниження мобілізаційного віку в Україні
«Нам потрібно, щоб проблема з браком людського ресурсу була вирішена» – Волтц
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Posted on January 12, 2025
Italy’s justice minister seeks to revoke arrest of Iranian based on US warrant
Rome — Italy’s justice minister has asked an appeals court to revoke the arrest of an Iranian citizen wanted by the U.S. over a drone attack in Jordan that killed three Americans a year ago.
Mohammad Abedini is scheduled to appear at a Milan court on Wednesday in connection with his bid for house arrest pending the extradition process to the U.S.
He was arrested on a U.S. warrant on Dec. 16, three days before Italian journalist Cecilia Sala was detained while on a reporting trip to Iran. Sala, who was believed held as a bargaining chip for Abedini’s release, returned home last week, giving rise to speculation about Abedini’s fate.
An official note released by the Justice Ministry on Sunday said that under Italy-U.S. extradition treaties, “only crimes that are punishable according to the laws of both sides can lead to extradition, a condition which, based on the state of documents, can’t be considered as existing.”
The ministry said that the potential charge against Abedini — criminal association for violating the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a U.S. federal law — “did not correspond to any conduct recognized by Italian law as a crime.”
The U.S. Justice Department has accused Abedini of supplying the drone technology to Iran that was used in a January 2024 attack on a U.S. outpost in Jordan that killed three American troops.
Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni described a “diplomatic triangulation” with Iran and the United States as being key to securing Sala’s release, confirming for the first time that Washington’s interests in the case entered into the negotiations.
Sala’s release came after Meloni made a surprise trip to Florida to meet U.S. President-elect Donald Trump at his Mar-a-Lago estate.
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Posted on January 12, 2025
Croatia’s President Milanovic overwhelming favorite to win reelection in runoff vote
ZAGREB, CROATIA — Croatia’s incumbent President Zoran Milanovic was the overwhelming favorite to win reelection as he faced a candidate from the ruling conservative party in a runoff presidential vote on Sunday.
The left-leaning Milanovic comfortably won the first round of voting on December 29, leaving his main challenger, Dragan Primorac, a forensic scientist who had unsuccessfully run for presidency previously, and six other candidates far behind.
The runoff between the top two contenders was necessary because Milanovic fell short of securing 50% of the vote by just 5,000 votes, while Primorac trailed far behind with 19%.
The election comes as the European Union and NATO member country of 3.8 million people struggles with biting inflation, corruption scandals and a labor shortage.
Milanovic, 58, is an outspoken critic of Western military support for Ukraine in its war against Russia. He is the most popular politician in Croatia and is sometimes compared to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump for his combative style of communication with political opponents.
Milanovic served as prime minister in the past with a mixed record. He has been a fierce critic of current Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic and the pair have long sparred with each other.
Milanovic regularly accuses Plenkovic and his conservative Croatian Democratic Union party of systemic corruption, calling the premier a “serious threat to Croatia’s democracy.”
Plenkovic has sought to portray Sunday’s vote as one about Croatia’s future in the EU and NATO. He has labelled Milanovic “pro-Russian” and a threat to Croatia’s international standing.
Primorac echoed this position as he cast his ballot on Sunday. He said the presidential vote was “very important” and “about the future of Croatia, … about the future of our homeland, our citizens, and, really, the direction that it would go from here.”
Political analyst Viseslav Raos said the increasingly outspoken Milanovic has no motive to “try to please someone or try to control himself.”
“If there was no cooperation with the prime minister for the first five years (of his presidency), why would it be now?” he added.
Though the presidency is largely ceremonial in Croatia, an elected president holds political authority and acts as the supreme military commander.
Despite limited powers, many believe the presidential position is key for the political balance of power in a country mainly governed by the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) since gaining independence from Yugoslavia in 1991.
During a TV debate ahead of the Sunday vote, Milanovic and Primorac exchanged barbs while exposing deep political differences.
Primorac, 59, entered politics in the early 2000s, when he was science and education minister in the HDZ-led government. He unsuccessfully ran for the presidency in 2009, and after that mainly focused on his academic career including lecturing at universities in the United States, China and in Croatia.
Milanovic denied he is pro-Russian but last year blocked the dispatch of five Croatian officers to NATO’s mission in Germany called Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine. He also pledged he would never approve sending Croatian soldiers as part of any NATO mission to Ukraine. Plenkovic and his government say there is no such proposal.
Milanovic accused Primorac of associating with “mass murderers,” referring to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s associates and the war in Gaza. He also claimed that Plenkovic was Primorac’s sponsor and dubbed Primorac “the last communist” — a reference to his membership of the former ruling Communist Party of Yugoslavia in the late 1980s.
Primorac meanwhile claimed that Milanovic’s only political allies were Bosnian Serb separatist leader Milorad Dodik, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and Hungary’s populist leader Viktor Orban.
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Posted on January 12, 2025
Cyclone-ravaged Mayotte on red alert as it braces for new storm
MAMOUDZOU, FRANCE — Residents of the French territory of Mayotte braced Saturday for a storm expected to bring strong winds and heavy rain less than a month after the Indian Ocean archipelago was devastated by a deadly cyclone.
Mayotte was placed on a red weather alert from 1900 GMT on Saturday in anticipation of the passage of Cyclone Dikeledi to the south of the territory.
Authorities called for “extreme vigilance” following the devastation wrought by Cyclone Chido in mid-December.
Meteo-France predicted “significant rain and windy conditions,” saying that very heavy rain could cause flooding.
Residents were advised to seek shelter and stock up on food and water.
The storm hit the northeastern coast of Madagascar on Saturday evening around 1630 GMT and was heading straight for the tourist island of Nosy Be.
It is expected to pass to the south of Mayotte on Sunday morning, according to forecasts.
“Nothing is being left to chance,” Manuel Valls, France’s new overseas territories minister, told AFP, referring to forecasts of “heavy and continuous rain” and winds of up to 110 kilometers per hour (kph).
As it hit Madagascar, average winds were estimated at 130 kilometers per hour, with gusts up to 180 kph.
The most devastating cyclone to hit France’s poorest department in 90 years caused colossal damage, killing at least 39 people and injuring more than 5,600 in December.
“We need to be seriously prepared for the possibility of a close passage of the cyclone,” the Mayotte prefecture said on social media platform X.
Prefect Francois-Xavier Bieuville, the top Paris-appointed official on the territory, said Mayotte would be placed on a red weather alert from 1900 GMT on Saturday.
“I have decided to bring forward this red alert to 10 p.m. to allow everyone to take shelter, to confine themselves, to take care of the people close to you, your children, your families,” Bieuville said on television.
Messages in French and two regional languages were broadcast on radio and television to alert the population.
Bieuville told reporters Saturday that the cyclone was forecast to pass within 110 kilometers (70 miles) of the archipelago’s southern coast.
“We even have systems telling us 75 kilometers. So, we have something that is going to hit Mayotte very closely”, he said.
The storm intensified from a tropical storm to a tropical cyclone Saturday morning, but forecasters are not expecting it to further intensify.
More than 4,000 personnel have been mobilized in Mayotte, including members of police and the army, said the interior ministry.
The prefect has requested that mayors reopen accommodation centers such as schools and gymnasiums that sheltered around 15,000 people in December.
He also ordered firefighters and other forces to be deployed to “extremely fragile” shantytowns in Mamoudzou and elsewhere.
Potential mudslides were “a major risk”, the prefect said.
“Chido was a dry cyclone, with very little rain,” he added.
“This tropical storm is a wet event; we are going to have a lot of rain.”
Mayotte’s population stands officially at 320,000, but there are an estimated 100,000 to 200,000 more undocumented inhabitants living in shanty towns that were destroyed by the cyclone in December.
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Posted on January 11, 2025
Президент Словаччини відмовився від візиту до України
Ця заява пролунала на тлі припинення Україною 1 січня постачання російського газу до Словаччини
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Posted on January 11, 2025
Turkey’s Kurdish leaders meet jailed politician; 2 sides inch toward peace
ISTANBUL — A delegation from one of Turkey’s biggest pro-Kurdish political parties met a leading figure of the Kurdish movement in prison Saturday, the latest step in a tentative process to end the country’s 40-year conflict, the party said.
Three senior figures from the Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM) met the party’s former co-chairperson, Selahattin Demirtas, at Edirne prison near the Greek border.
The meeting with Demirtas — jailed in 2016 on terrorism charges that most observers, including the European Court of Human Rights, have labelled politically motivated — took place two weeks after DEM members met Abdullah Ocalan, the imprisoned head of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).
While the PKK has led an armed insurgency against the Turkish state since the 1980s, the DEM is the latest party representing left-leaning Kurdish nationalism. Both DEM and its predecessors have faced state measures largely condemned as repression, including the jailing of elected officials and the banning of parties.
In a statement released on social media after the meeting, Demirtas called on all sides to “focus on a common future where everyone, all of us, will win.”
Demirtas credited Ocalan with raising the chance that the PKK could lay down its arms. Ocalan has been jailed on Imrali island in the Sea of Marmara since 1999 for treason over his leadership of the PKK, considered a terrorist organization by Turkey and most Western states.
Demirtas led the DEM between 2014 and 2018, when it was known as the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) and he is still widely admired. He said that despite “good intentions,” it was necessary for “concrete steps that inspire confidence … to be taken quickly.”
One of the DEM delegation, Ahmet Turk, said: “I believe that Turks need Kurds and Kurds need Turks. Our wish is for Turkey to come to a point where it can build democracy in the Middle East.”
The armed conflict between the PKK and the Turkish state, which started in August 1984 and has claimed tens of thousands of lives, has seen several failed attempts at peace.
Despite being imprisoned for a quarter of a century, Ocalan remains central to any chance of success due to his ongoing popularity among many of Turkey’s Kurds. In a statement released on December 29, he signaled his willingness to “contribute positively” to renewed efforts.
Meanwhile, in an address Saturday to ruling party supporters in Diyarbakir, the largest city in the Kurdish-majority southeast, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called for the disbandment of the PKK and the surrender of its weapons.
This would allow DEM “the opportunity to develop itself, strengthening our internal front against the increasing conflicts in our region, in short, closing the half-century-old separatist terror bracket and consigning it to history … forever,” he said in televised comments.
The latest drive for peace came when Devlet Bahceli, leader of the far-right Nationalist Movement Party and a close ally of Erdogan, surprised everyone in October when he suggested that Ocalan could be granted parole if he renounced violence and disbanded the PKK.
Erdogan offered tacit support for Bahceli’s suggestion a week later, and Ocalan said he was ready to work for peace, in a message conveyed by his nephew.
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Posted on January 11, 2025
Кличко закликає уряд втрутитися в ситуацію з можливою забудовою ботсаду імені Гришка у Києві
За даними Держаудитслужби, Національна академія наук України передала приватним забудовникам у Києві 116 га державної землі
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Posted on January 11, 2025
France starts 2025 with fresh controversy, questions over Africa
PARIS — France starts 2025 with a further drawdown of its military presence in its former African colonies, and fresh tensions ignited this week with controversial remarks by French President Emmanuel Macron.
Chad, Senegal and now Ivory Coast have followed Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso in asking France to withdraw its troops from their soil. The reasons vary — from growing anti-French sentiment to calls for greater sovereignty and strengthening ties with other foreign powers. But the impact is the same.
“There is a clear collapse of French policy in Africa,” said Thierry Vircoulon, a researcher at the French Institute for International Relations’ Africa Center. “The withdrawal of the French troops and basically the end of the French military presence in Africa is a symbol of that collapse.”
French-African relations haven’t improved in recent days. On Monday, Macron suggested some Sahel countries had forgotten to thank French troops for spearheading a decadelong fight against Islamist insurgencies.
That drew sharp criticism from leaders in Chad and Senegal. French authorities say Macron’s remarks were taken out of context.
Jean-Pierre Maulny, deputy director of the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs think tank, said he believes France needs to be less focused on the immediate fallout and instead concentrate on longer-term ties with francophone African countries.
France should think more about development and sharing the future of Africa’s security, he said, and less about adopting a big brother attitude.
Macron’s government announced plans last year to reduce its military presence on the continent — where it also has troops in Gabon and Djibouti — and make it more responsive to countries’ demands.
France has also expanded ties beyond francophone Africa. Its two biggest trading partners, for example, are Nigeria and South Africa.
But analyst Vircoulon predicts France’s long-term influence in Africa will remain limited, at best.
“There’s very little that the French government can do, and it’s playing in favor of Russia and other countries that are not Western,” he said.
He said he believes France’s strategic priorities will shift to potential conflicts in Europe.
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Posted on November 8, 2024
Маск брав участь у телефонній розмові Трампа та Зеленського – ЗМІ
Маск під час розмови заявив, що продовжить підтримувати Україну через свої супутники Starlink
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Posted on November 8, 2024
Зеленський поговорив із президентом Фінляндії: йшлося про загрози безпеці, мир і системи ППО
«Окремо висловив подяку Александру Стуббу за його активну позицію в просуванні миру на основі принципів Статуту ООН під час спілкування із країнами Глобального Півдня»
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Posted on November 8, 2024
Премʼєр Бельгії заперечив слова Орбана про зміну думки західних лідерів щодо війни в Україні
«Серед 27 країн-членів ЄС досі є консенсус, що ми продовжимо підтримувати Україну і зробимо все, що можливо, щоб підтримати Україну»
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Posted on November 8, 2024
Єрмак заявив про «деяких депутатів», які заплуталися в питаннях нацбезпеки. Євген Шевченко відповів
Напередодні Шевченко, який раніше був виключений з фракції «Слуга народу», закликав Зеленського «починати діалог»
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Posted on November 8, 2024
«Укренерго» фіксує зростання споживання електроенергії через похолодання
На 9:30 у п’ятницю рівень споживання був на 5% вищим, ніж попереднього дня, 7 листопада
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Posted on November 8, 2024
СБУ затримала співробітника ТЦК на Волині за збір даних про військові об’єкти
Затриманий – 30-річний військовослужбовець, що проходив службу у підрозділі охорони місцевого територіального центру комплектування
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Posted on November 8, 2024
Overnight Russian attacks across Ukraine kill 1, officials say
KYIV, Ukraine — Russia launched a barrage of drones and missiles at Ukraine overnight, killing one civilian and wounding more than 30 people in the center, south, and northeast, Ukrainian officials said Friday.
The Russian forces launched 92 drones and five missiles at 12 Ukrainian regions, the Ukrainian air force said.
Sixty-two drones and four missiles were downed, it said, and 26 drones were “lost,” most likely meaning they had been thwarted electronically.
The Interior Ministry said one person had been killed in the Odesa region, where civilian infrastructure and homes were damaged and nine people were injured.
Four people were wounded in a drone attack on the Kyiv region and at least six private houses and several cars were damaged, it said.
Russia also pounded the city of Kharkiv in the northeast with guided bombs, wounding at least 25 people, said regional governor Oleh Syniehubov.
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy issued a fresh appeal to Kyiv’s partners to help strengthen its air defenses.
“Air defense, long-range capabilities, weapons packages, sanctions against the aggressor — this is the answer that is needed, not only in words, but also in actions,” he said on the Telegram messaging app.
Russia has intensified its air attacks on Ukrainian cities and towns, sending swarms of drones almost every night.
Ukrainian officials say Russia is trying to stretch Ukraine’s air defenses and demoralize the civilian population as the war nears the 1,000-day mark and Moscow’s troops advance in the east.
Russia launched more than 2,000 attack drones at civilian and military targets in October, Ukraine’s military said.
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Posted on November 8, 2024
5 hospitalized, 62 detained after attacks on Israeli football fans, Amsterdam police say
AMSTERDAM — Amsterdam police said Friday that five people were hospitalized and 62 arrested after what authorities described as systematic violence by antisemitic rioters targeting Israeli fans following a football match.
The Dutch and Israeli leaders denounced the violence, and condemnation poured in from Jewish groups. Israel’s foreign minister left on an urgent diplomatic trip to the Netherlands. Security concerns have shrouded matches with Israeli teams in multiple countries over the past year because of global tensions linked to the wars in the Middle East.
The Amsterdam police said in a post on X that they have started a major investigation into multiple violent incidents. The post did not provide further details about those injured or detained in Thursday night’s violence following the Europa League match between Ajax and Maccabi Tel Aviv.
Authorities said extra police would patrol Amsterdam in coming days, and security will be beefed up at Jewish institutions in the city that has a large Jewish community and was home to Jewish World War II diarist Anne Frank and her family as they hid from Nazi occupiers.
Earlier, a statement issued by the Dutch capital’s municipality, police and prosecution office said that the night “was very turbulent with several incidents of violence aimed at Maccabi supporters” after antisemitic rioters “actively sought out Israeli supporters to attack and assault them.”
It was not immediately clear when and where violence erupted after the match.
“In several places in the city, supporters were attacked. The police had to intervene several times, protect Israeli supporters and escort them to hotels. Despite the massive police presence in the city, Israeli supporters have been injured,” the Amsterdam statement said.
“This outburst of violence toward Israeli supporters is unacceptable and cannot be defended in any way. There is no excuse for the antisemitic behavior exhibited last night,” it added.
The violence erupted despite a ban on a pro-Palestinian demonstration near the football stadium imposed by Amsterdam Mayor Femke Halsema, who had feared that clashes would break out between protesters and supporters of the Israeli football club.
There were also incidents involving fans ahead of the match. Dutch broadcaster NOS reported that a Palestinian flag was ripped off a building in the center of the city and riot police blocked pro-Palestinian supporters trying to march toward the Johan Cruyff Arena stadium where the match was being played.
Israel initially ordered that two planes be sent to the Dutch capital to bring the Israelis home, but later the prime minister’s office said it would work on “providing civil aviation solutions for the return of our citizens.”
A statement from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said that “the harsh pictures of the assault on our citizens in Amsterdam will not be overlooked,” and that Netanyahu “views the horrifying incident with utmost gravity.” He demanded that the Dutch government take “vigorous and swift action” against those involved.
Netanyahu’s office added that he had called for increased security for the Jewish community in the Netherlands.
Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof said on X that he followed reports of the violence “with horror.”
“Completely unacceptable antisemitic attacks on Israelis. I am in close contact with everyone involved,” he added, saying that he had spoken to Netanyahu and “emphasized that the perpetrators will be tracked down and prosecuted. It is now quiet in the capital.”
Security issues around hosting games against visiting Israeli teams led the Belgian football federation to decline to stage a men’s Nations League game in September. That game against Israel was played in Hungary with no fans in the stadium.
The violence in Amsterdam will lead to a review of security at two games this month being organized by European football body UEFA. France plays Israel at Stade de France near Paris next Thursday in the Nations League and Maccabi Tel Aviv’s next Europa League game is scheduled in Istanbul on November 28 against Besiktas.
Ajax won the Europa League match 5-0.
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Posted on November 8, 2024
У Держдепі США відповіли, чи сприятимуть переговорам про припинення війни в Україні до закінчення повноважень Байдена
«Якщо президент Зеленський вирішить, що він хоче розпочати переговори (з Росією), звичайно, це те, що ми підтримаємо» – заявили у Держдепі
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Posted on November 8, 2024
ISW: Путін намагається впливати на політику Трампа і хоче домогтися перезавантаження відносин з США на російських умовах
Як вважають аналітики, з заяви Путіна випливає, що Росія погодиться на перезавантаження відносин лише за умови, що США скасують санкції
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Posted on November 8, 2024
У МЗС назвали передумову для проведення другого саміту миру
«Нікому не потрібен протокольний захід. Навпаки, всім треба змістовний саміт і подія, які дійсно може наблизити справедливий мир. І ця робота триває»
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Posted on November 8, 2024
DNA evidence rewrites long-told stories of people in ancient Pompeii
When a volcanic eruption buried the ancient city of Pompeii, the last desperate moments of its citizens were preserved in stone for centuries.
Observers see stories in the plaster casts later made of their bodies, like a mother holding a child and two women embracing as they died.
But new DNA evidence suggests things were not as they seem — and these prevailing interpretations come from looking at the ancient world through modern eyes.
“We were able to disprove or challenge some of the previous narratives built upon how these individuals were kind of found in relation to each other,” said Alissa Mittnik of the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology in Germany. “It opens up different interpretations for who these people might have been.”
Mittnik and her colleagues discovered that the person thought to be a mother was actually a man unrelated to the child. And at least one of the two people locked in an embrace — long assumed to be sisters or a mother and daughter — was a man. Their research was published Thursday in the journal Current Biology.
The team, which also includes scientists from Harvard University and the University of Florence in Italy, relied on genetic material preserved for nearly two millennia. After Mount Vesuvius erupted and destroyed the Roman city in 79 A.D., bodies buried in mud and ash eventually decomposed, leaving spaces where they used to be. Casts were created from the voids in the late 1800s.
Researchers focused on 14 casts undergoing restoration, extracting DNA from the fragmented skeletal remains that mixed with them. They hoped to determine the sex, ancestry and genetic relationships between the victims.
There were several surprises in “the house of the golden bracelet,” the dwelling where the assumed mother and child were found. The adult wore an intricate piece of jewelry, for which the house was named, reinforcing the impression that the victim was a woman. Nearby were the bodies of another adult and child thought to be the rest of their nuclear family.
DNA evidence showed the four were male and not related to one another, clearly showing “the story that was long spun around these individuals” was wrong, Mittnik said.
Researchers also confirmed Pompeii citizens came from diverse backgrounds but mainly descended from eastern Mediterranean immigrants – underscoring a broad pattern of movement and cultural exchange in the Roman Empire. Pompeii is located about 241 kilometers from Rome.
The study builds upon research from 2022 when scientists sequenced the genome of a Pompeii victim for the first time and confirmed the possibility of retrieving ancient DNA from the human remains that still exist.
“They have a better overview of what’s happening in Pompeii because they analyzed different samples,” said Gabriele Scorrano of the University of Rome Tor Vergata, a co-author of that research who was not involved in the current study. “We actually had one genome, one sample, one shot.”
Though much remains to be learned, Scorrano said, such genetic brushstrokes are slowly painting a truer picture of how people lived in the distant past.
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Posted on November 8, 2024
What does Trump’s election victory mean for NATO, Europe?
Allies in Europe are debating what Donald Trump’s win in the U.S. presidential election could mean for their security and economy. Trump’s first term in office was characterized by often turbulent relations with EU and NATO partners. As Henry Ridgwell reports, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has amplified Europe’s concerns over the transatlantic alliance.
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Posted on November 7, 2024
What does Trump’s election victory mean for NATO, Europe?
LONDON — America’s allies in Europe are debating what Donald Trump’s win in Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election could mean for their security and prosperity amid concerns that the next four years may once again be characterized by a turbulent transatlantic alliance.
European interests
About 50 European leaders met in Budapest on Thursday for a summit of the European Political Community, which was set up in 2022 in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
French President Emmanuel Macron said Europe must stand up for itself as it prepares for the next Trump presidency in the United States.
“There is a geopolitical situation where it is clear that we have two blocs: the United States of America on one side and China on the other, which above all seek their own interests,” Macron told the other European leaders.
“I think that our role here in the European Union is not to comment on the election of Donald Trump, to wonder if it is good or not. He was elected by the American people, and he is going to defend the interests of American people and that is legitimate and that is a good thing,” he said.
“The question is, are we ready to defend the interests of Europeans? That is the only question that we should ask ourselves. And for me, I think that is our priority,” he said.
NATO
The NATO alliance remains the bedrock of Europe’s security.
“The first implication for the alliance is how to continue support for Ukraine if there’s an expected drawdown of military assistance from the U.S.,” said Ed Arnold, senior research fellow for European security at Britain’s Royal United Services Institute.
“That can either be delivered through NATO — and there were some steps taken in this summer to sort of formalize those structures — but still significantly less than where it needs to be. It can also be done through the EU as well, which might increase slightly but probably not enough. Or it can be done bilaterally,” Arnold told VOA.
“I think actually the mechanisms are probably largely irrelevant. It’s more about the cost to individual nations, and that’s going to have to ramp up pretty quickly if they’re going to be able to have that impact,” he said.
Shortfall
Does Europe have the capacity to make up any shortfall from a U.S. withdrawal of support for Kyiv?
“Yes, but it would take a lot more effort than Europe is making now,” according to analyst Ian Bond of the Center for European Reform. “And I think there will be some, perhaps in Germany, perhaps elsewhere, who will say the Ukrainians are just going to have to put up with losing some of their territory.
“I think for the Baltic states, for the Nordic states, Poland — they will look at this and they will say, ‘Russia is going to be an existential threat to us if it is allowed to control Ukraine. And therefore we must step up our efforts,'” Bond said.
On the campaign trail, Trump said he would end the Russia-Ukraine war on day one, although he didn’t elaborate on how that would be achieved. In the past he has boasted of a good relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Peace deal?
Ukraine fears being forced into an unfavorable peace deal — and Europeans might change their calculations, said analyst Arnold of RUSI.
“There might be a bit of a worry where there’s some within Europe who say, “Why would we ramp up aid now if there’s going to be a negotiated settlement fairly soon? And I think the real risk for Europe as a whole — the EU but also NATO — is that actually the U.S. and Russia might start to do these negotiations without them,” Arnold said.
Leverage
There are deeper concerns that the U.S. might withdraw wider support for European security. Former government officials say Trump considered pulling the U.S. out of NATO altogether in his first term.
“One of the very few consistent beliefs that Trump has held to since he entered politics has been the idea that the United States is being taken advantage of by its allies,” said Jonathan Monten, a U.S. foreign policy analyst at University College London.
“At times, Trump threatened to withdraw from the alliance altogether but was ultimately held back. So the million-dollar question … is whether or not he will actually act on that threat,” Monten told VOA.
“I think he likes the idea that he’s keeping foreign allies as well as adversaries guessing as to his ultimate intentions. I think he sees that as a source of leverage, as a source of power,” he said.
NATO’s secretary general, Mark Rutte, who took over the role October 1, has struck a more upbeat tone, praising Trump for getting allies to spend more on defense.
“When he was president, he was the one in NATO who stimulated us to move over the 2% [of GDP spending target],” Rutte told reporters in Budapest on Thursday.
Tariffs
It’s not only security fears that are haunting European capitals. America’s allies could also face economic turbulence when Trump enters the White House.
“The [Trump] claims of putting about 60% or more tariffs on all imports from China will have to have a major disruptive impact on world trade, and there will be repercussions on the EU, on Europe, on the U.K. and elsewhere. We can expect also tariffs on imports from the EU as well,” said Garret Martin, co-director of the Transatlantic Policy Center at American University in Washington.
“One element that I think is going to be absolutely critical for Europe, for the EU, is to work on protecting its unity and its unanimity. Trump, I think, is likely to try to adopt a divide and rule approach,” Martin said.
Unpredictability
Trump’s unpredictability means there is little Europe’s leaders can do to prepare, said Monten.
“They can try flattery,” he said. “They can try to offer him deals that benefit him personally, but it’s unclear what exactly they would have to offer. They can offer him the kind of stature or respect that comes along with a big grand summit or trade deal. He seems to crave that kind of respect.
“But when it comes to actual tangible concrete results, it is unclear what levers they have either to threaten him with or to cajole him with,” Monten told VOA.
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Posted on November 7, 2024
Збитки України від російської агресії сягнули близько 800 млрд доларів – Зеленський
«Україні зараз потрібні заморожені активи для закупівлі зброї та побудови житла для людей, які його втратили внаслідок війни»
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Posted on November 7, 2024
Посолка США в Україні оголосила про запуск проєкту з реабілітації Rehab4U від USAID
«Це інвестиція в розмірі 40 мільйонів доларів, спрямована на зміцнення реабілітаційних послуг для ветеранів і цивільних осіб, що має на меті розкрити людський капітал для відновлення України»
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Posted on November 7, 2024
19,000 tons of Ukrainian grain arrives in drought-hit Malawi
Malawi, with help from the World Food Program, has received its first shipment of more than 19,000 tons of maize from Ukraine. The food aid will help feed millions of Malawians currently dealing with food shortages exacerbated by El Nino-induced drought. Lameck Masina reports from Blantyre.
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